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Economic and business forecasting : analyzing and interpreting econometric results /
Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting. Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecast...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Hoboken, New Jersey :
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,
[2014]
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| Colección: | Wiley & SAS business series
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo (Requiere registro previo con correo institucional) |
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Silvia, John. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Economic and business forecasting : |b analyzing and interpreting econometric results / |c John Silvia, Azhar Iqbal, Kaylyn Swankoski, Sarah Watt, Sam Bullard. |
| 264 | 1 | |a Hoboken, New Jersey : |b John Wiley & Sons, Inc., |c [2014] | |
| 264 | 4 | |c ©2014 | |
| 300 | |a 1 online resource | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
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| 490 | 0 | |a Wiley & SAS business series | |
| 588 | 0 | |a Print version record and CIP data provided by publisher. | |
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index. | ||
| 520 | |a Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting. Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template ... | ||
| 505 | 0 | 0 | |g Machine generated contents note: |t Effective Decision Making: Characterize the Data -- |t Growth: How Is the Economy Doing Overall? -- |t Personal Consumption -- |t Gross Private Domestic Investment -- |t Government Purchases -- |t Net Exports of Goods and Services -- |t Real Final Sales and Gross Domestic Purchases -- |t Labor Market: Always a Core Issue -- |t Establishment Survey -- |t Data Revision: A Special Consideration -- |t Household Survey -- |t Marrying the Labor Market Indicators Together -- |t Jobless Claims -- |t Inflation -- |t Consumer Price Index: A Society's Inflation Benchmark -- |t Producer Price Index -- |t Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator: The Inflation Benchmark for Monetary Policy -- |t Interest Rates: Price of Credit -- |t Dollar and Exchange Rates: The United States in a Global Economy -- |t Corporate Profits -- |t Summary -- |t Profitability Ratios -- |t Summary -- |t Why Characterize a Time Series? -- |t How to Characterize a Time Series -- |t Application: Judging Economic Volatility -- |t Summary -- |t Important Test Statistics in Identifying Statistically Significant Relationships -- |t Simple Econometric Techniques to Determine a Statistical Relationship -- |t Advanced Econometric Techniques to Determine a Statistical Relationship -- |t Summary -- |t Additional Reading -- |t Tips for SAS Users -- |t DATA Step -- |t PROC Step -- |t Summary -- |t Testing a Unit Root in a Time Series: A Case Study of the U.S. CPI -- |t Identifying a Structural Change in a Time Series -- |t Application of the HP Filter -- |t Application: Benchmarking the Housing Bust, Bear Stearns, and Lehman Brothers -- |t Summary -- |t Useful Tips for an Applied Time Series Analysis -- |t Converting a Dataset from One Frequency to Another -- |t Application: Did the Great Recession Alter Credit Benchmarks? -- |t Summary -- |t Commandment 1: Know What You Are Forecasting -- |t Commandment 2: Understand the Purpose of Forecasting -- |t Commandment 3: Acknowledge the Cost of the Forecast Error -- |t Commandment 4: Rationalize the Forecast Horizon -- |t Commandment 5: Understand the Choice of Variables -- |t Commandment 6: Rationalize the Forecasting Model Used -- |t Commandment 7: Know How to Present the Results -- |t Commandment 8: Know How to Decipher the Forecast Results -- |t Commandment 9: Understand the Importance of Recursive Methods -- |t Commandment 10: Understand Forecasting Models Evolve over Time -- |t Summary -- |t Unconditional (Atheoretical) Approach -- |t Conditional (Theoretical) Approach -- |t Recession Forecast Using a Probit Model -- |t Summary -- |t Importance of the Real-Time Short-Term Forecasting -- |t Individual Forecast versus Consensus Forecast: Is There an Advantage? -- |t Econometrics of Real-Time Short-Term Forecasting: The BVAR Approach -- |t Forecasting in Real Time: Issues Related to the Data and the Model Selection -- |t Case Study: WFC versus Bloomberg -- |t Summary -- |t Appendix 11A: List of Variables -- |t Unconditional Long-Term Forecasting: The BVAR Model -- |t BVAR Model with Housing Starts -- |t Model without Oil Price Shock -- |t Model with Oil Price Shock -- |t Summary -- |t Risks to Short-Term Forecasting: There Is No Magic Bullet -- |t Risks of Long-Term Forecasting: Black Swan versus a Group of Black Swans -- |t Model-Based Forecasting and the Great Recession/Financial Crisis: Worst-Case Scenario versus Panic -- |t Summary -- |t Benchmarking Economic Growth -- |t Industrial Production: Another Case of Stationary Behavior -- |t Employment: Jobs in the Twenty-First Century -- |t Inflation -- |t Interest Rates -- |t Imbalances between Bond Yields and Equity Earnings -- |t Note of Caution on Patterns of Interest Rates -- |t Business Credit: Patterns Reminiscent of Cyclical Recovery -- |t Profits -- |t Financial Market Volatility: Assessing Risk -- |t Dollar -- |t Economic Policy: Impact of Fiscal Policy and the Evolution of the U.S. Economy -- |t Long-Term Deficit Bias and Its Economic Implications -- |t Summary. |
| 590 | |a O'Reilly |b O'Reilly Online Learning: Academic/Public Library Edition | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Economic forecasting. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Business forecasting. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Decision making. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Econometrics. | |
| 650 | 2 | |a Decision Making | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Prévision économique. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Prévision commerciale. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Prise de décision. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Économétrie. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a decision making. |2 aat | |
| 650 | 7 | |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS |x Economics |x General. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS |x Reference. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Business forecasting |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Decision making |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Econometrics |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Economic forecasting |2 fast | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Silvia, John. |t Economic and business forecasting. |d Hoboken, New Jersey : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., [2014] |z 9781118497098 |w (DLC) 2013039764 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://learning.oreilly.com/library/view/~/9781118497098/?ar |z Texto completo (Requiere registro previo con correo institucional) |
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