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Is the Cycle the Trend? Evidence from the Views of International Forecasters.
We revisit the conventional view that output fluctuates around a stable trend by analyzing professional long-term forecasts for 38 advanced and emerging market economies. If transitory deviations around a trend dominate output fluctuations, then forecasters should not change their long-term output l...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Otros Autores: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2018.
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| Colección: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
no. 18/163. |
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Cover; Contents; I. INTRODUCTION; II. ESTIMATION AND RESULTS; A. Baseline results; B. Robustness; III. HOW CLOSELY DO FORECASTERS' VIEWS OF PERSISTENCE FIT THE DATA?; IV. EXTENSIONS; A. Proxies for demand and supply shocks; B. Permanent-transitory decomposition; C. Alternative source of forecasts; D. Persistence of other time series; V. CONCLUSION; References; Figures; 1. Long-term Output Forecast Revisions vs. Current-period Output Forecast Revisions; 2. Perceived Impulse Responses: Advanced vs. Emerging Markets; 3. Current-period Output Forecast Revisions vs. Subsequent Forecast Errors.
- 4. Perceived Impulse Responses for Output Level:5. GDP, Consumption and Investment Level: Perceived Impulse Responses; Tables; 1. Individual Country Estimates. Perceived Long-term Effect of a 1 Percentage Point Shock; 2. Robustness; 3. Forecast Evaluation; 4. Perceived Persistence of Output: Proxies for Demand and Supply Shocks; 5. Perceived Transitory and Permanent Shocks to GDP: Variance Decomposition; 6. Perceived Long-term Effect of a 1 Percentage Point Shock to Other Variables.