Expert Political Judgment : How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition /

The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are...

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Détails bibliographiques
Auteur principal: Tetlock, Philip E. (Philip Eyrikson), 1954-
Format: Électronique eBook
Langue:Inglés
Publié: Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press, 2005.
Collection:Book collections on Project MUSE.
Sujets:
Politieke meningen.
Meningsvorming.
Deskundigen.
Political psychology.
Ideology.
PSYCHOLOGY > Social Psychology.
PHILOSOPHY > Political.
ideology.
Ideologie.
Psychologie politique.
Electronic books.
Accès en ligne:Texto completo
Description
Résumé:The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future.
Description matérielle:1 online resource (368 pages): illustrations
ISBN:9781400888818

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