Solar energy forecasting and resource assessment /

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Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment is a vital text for solar energy professionals, addressing a critical gap in the core literature of the field. As major barriers to solar energy implementation, such as materials cost and low conversion efficiency, continue to fall, issues of intermit...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Otros Autores: Kleissl, Jan (Editor )
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Oxford : Elsevier Ltd., 2013.
Temas:
Solar energy.
Solar Energy
solar energy.
�Energie solaire.
solar power.
TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING > Mechanical.
Solar energy
Acceso en línea:Texto completo
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • Note continued: References / J. Kleissl / J. Stein / M. Lave
  • 8.1. Classification of Solar-Forecasting Methods / Jan Kleissl / Richardo Marquez / Carlos F.M. Coimbra
  • 8.2. Deterministic and Stochastic Forecasting Approaches / Jan Kleissl / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez
  • 8.2.1.A Critical Appraisal of Physically-Based Forecasting Approaches / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Jan Kleissl / Richardo Marquez
  • 8.2.2. Satellite Forecasts / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Jan Kleissl / Richardo Marquez
  • 8.2.3. Sky-Imager Forecasts / Jan Kleissl / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez
  • 8.2.4. Data Inputs to Stochastic-Learning Approaches / Jan Kleissl / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez
  • 8.2.5. Section Summary / Jan Kleissl / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez
  • 8.3. Metrics for Evaluation of Solar-Forecasting Models / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Jan Kleissl / Richardo Marquez
  • 8.3.1. Solar Resource Variability / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Jan Kleissl / Richardo Marquez
  • 8.3.2. Conventional Metrics for Model Evaluation / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Jan Kleissl / Richardo Marquez
  • 8.3.3.A Time Horizon-Invariant (THI) Metric / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez / Jan Kleissl
  • 8.4. Applying the THI Metric to Evaluate Persistence, and Nonlinear Autoregressive Forecast Models / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez / Jan Kleissl
  • 8.4.1. NAR and NARX Forecasting Models / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez / Jan Kleissl
  • 8.4.2.Comparison of Forecasting Models and Persistence / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez / Jan Kleissl
  • 8.4.3.Comparison with a Satellite Cloud-Motion Forecast Model / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez / Jan Kleissl
  • 8.5. Conclusions / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez / Jan Kleissl
  • References / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez / Jan Kleissl
  • 9.1. Challenges in Short Term Solar Forecasting / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.2. Applications / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.2.1. Utility-scale Solar-Power Facilities / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.2.2. Distributed PV on Urban Feeders / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.2.3. PV-Tied Energy Storage / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.3. Sky-Imaging Hardware / Dung Nguyen / Ben Kurtz / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Bryan Urquhart / Chi Wai Chow
  • 9.3.1.Components of Ground Image-Based Forecasting / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.3.2. Historical Review of Digital Sky Photography for Atmospheric Research / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.3.3. Optical- and Imaging-System Design of the UCSD Sky Imager / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.3.4. High-Dynamic-Range Imaging / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.4. Sky-Imagery Analysis Techniques / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.4.1. Image-Processing Techniques for Cloud Detection and Opacity Classification / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.4.2. Determination of Cloud-Base Height through Stereography / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.4.3. Cloud Velocity Estimation / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.5. Case Study: Copper Mountain / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.5.1. Experimental Setup / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.5.2. Forecast Methodology / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.5.3. Power-Output Forecasts with Sky Imagery / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.5.4. Error Metrics / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Dung Nguyen / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Jan Kleissl
  • 9.5.5. Forecast Performance / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.6. Conclusions / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.6.1. Future Applications / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • 9.6.2. Final Remarks / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen
  • References / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen.
  • Note continued: 10.1. The SolarAnywhere Solar Resource and Forecast Data Service / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez
  • 10.1.1. Historical Data / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez
  • 10.1.2. Forecast Data / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez
  • 10.2. Solaranywhere Forecast Models / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez
  • 10.2.1. Short-Term Cloud-Motion Vector Forecasts / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez
  • 10.2.2. Numerical Weather Prediction Forecasts / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez
  • 10.3. Model Evaluation: Standard Resolution / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez
  • 10.3.1. Single-Point Ground-Truth Validation / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez
  • 10.3.2. Extended-Area Validations / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez
  • 10.3.3. Intercomparison of NWP Solar Forecast Models / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez
  • 10.4. Performance Evaluation: 1 km, 1 min Forecasts / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez
  • Concluding Remarks / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez
  • References / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez
  • 11.1. Solar Energy Penetration in Germany / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.2. Overview of the Satellite Forecast Process / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.3. Irradiance from Satellite Data / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.3.1. Meteosat Satellite / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.3.2. Heliosat Method / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.4. Cloud-Motion Vectors / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.4.1. Detection of Cloud Motion / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.4.2. Determination of Model Parameters / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.4.3. Forecasting by Extrapolation of Motion / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.4.4. Postprocessing: Smoothing / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.5. Evaluation / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.5.1. Evaluation Measures and Period / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.5.2. Reference Forecasts: ECMWF and Persistence / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.6. Evaluation of CMV Forecasts / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.6.1. Single-Site Forecasts / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.6.2. Regional Forecasts / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.6.3. Error Characterization / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.7. PV-Power Forecasting / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 11.8. Summary and Outlook / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • References / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz
  • 12.1. Introduction / Vincent E. Larson
  • 12.2. Steps Required to Produce a NWP Forecast / Vincent E. Larson
  • 12.2.1. Determining Atmosphere Initial State and Grid Resolution / Vincent E. Larson
  • 12.2.2. Statistical Postprocessing / Vincent E. Larson
  • 12.3.Comparison of Model Configurations for Four Operational Models (ECMWF, NAM, GFS, RAP): Spatial and Temporal Coverage, Deep and Shallow Cumulus, Turbulent Transport, Cloud Fraction, Cloud Overlap, Stratiform Microphysics, Aerosol, Shortwave Radiative Transfer / Vincent E. Larson
  • 12.4. Possible Sources of Error in Forecasted Irradiance / Vincent E. Larson
  • 12.4.1. Noncloudy Scenes / Vincent E. Larson
  • 12.4.2. Cloudy Scenes / Vincent E. Larson
  • 12.4.3.A Need for Caution / Vincent E. Larson
  • 12.5. Present-Day Accuracy of Solar-Irradiance Forecasts / Vincent E. Larson
  • 12.6. Conclusions / Vincent E. Larson
  • References / Vincent E. Larson
  • 13.1. Introduction / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.2. DA Methods and Their Use / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.2.1. Overview / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.2.2. Major NWP DA Centers / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.2.3. Data Cycling / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.2.4. Data Quality Control / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.2.5. Data Thinning / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.2.6. Performance Metrics / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.3. How does DA Work? / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.3.1. Bayesian Theory / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.3.2. DA Components: Forward Models, Mathematical Adjoints, Operators, and Cost Function / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.3.3. Variational DA / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.3.4. Incremental Variational DA / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.3.5. Ensemble DA / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.3.6. Particle Filters / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.4. Solar-Energy DA Challenges / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.4.1. Nonlinear Physics / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.4.2. Non-Gaussian Physics / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.4.3. Noncontinuous Physics / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.4.4. Examples of Cloudy DA / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.5. Future Trends / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 13.6. Conclusions / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones.
  • Note continued: References / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones
  • 14.1. Motivation: Forecasts of Irradiance, Variability, and Uncertainty / Patrick Mathiesen / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl
  • 14.1.1. Defining Stakeholder Needs / Patrick Mathiesen / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl
  • 14.1.2. Independent System Operator Perspective / Patrick Mathiesen / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl
  • 14.1.3. Energy-Trader Perspective / Patrick Mathiesen / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl
  • 14.2. Solar Forecasting Using NWP at GL-Garrad Hassan / Patrick Mathiesen / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl
  • 14.2.1. Publicly Available NWP Models / Patrick Mathiesen / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl
  • 14.2.2. The WRF Model at GL-Garrad Hassan / Patrick Mathiesen / Jan Kleissl / Craig Collier
  • 14.2.3. Model Output Statistics, Confidence Intervals, Ramp Probability / Patrick Mathiesen / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl
  • 14.3. Case Studies on Meeting Stakeholder Needs / Jan Kleissl / Craig Collier / Patrick Mathiesen
  • 14.3.1. ISO Perspective / Craig Collier / Patrick Mathiesen / Jan Kleissl
  • 14.3.2. Energy Trader Perspective / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl / Patrick Mathiesen
  • 14.4. Summary and Conclusions / Patrick Mathiesen / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl
  • References / Patrick Mathiesen / Jan Kleissl / Craig Collier
  • 15.1. Introduction / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Hugo T.C. Pedro
  • 15.2. Baseline Methods for Comparison / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra
  • 15.2.1. Persistence Methods / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra
  • 15.2.2. ARIMA Models / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra
  • 15.2.3.kNN and ANN / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra
  • 15.3. Genetic Algorithms / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra
  • 15.3.1. GA/ANN: Scanning the Solution Space / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra
  • 15.3.2. Selection, Crossover, Mutation, and Stopping Criterion / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra
  • 15.4. Qualitative Performance Assessment / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Hugo T.C. Pedro
  • 15.5. Performance of Stochastic-Learning Methods with No Exogenous Variables / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra
  • 15.5.1. Clear-Sky Model / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra
  • 15.5.2. Quantitative Performance of ARIMA, kNN, ANN, GA/ANN / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Hugo T.C. Pedro
  • 15.6. Sky-Imaging Data as Exogenous Variables for Solar Forecasts / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra
  • 15.6.1. Image Processing / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Hugo T.C. Pedro
  • 15.6.2. Deterministic Results / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra
  • 15.7. Stochastic Learning Using Exogenous Variables: The National Digital Forecasting Database / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Hugo T.C. Pedro
  • 15.8. Conclusions / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra
  • References / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra.

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