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Lies, damned lies, and science : how to sort through the noise around global warming, the latest health claims, and other scientific controversies /
"Every day, there's a new scientific or health controversy. And every day, it seems as if there's a new study that contradicts what you heard yesterday. What's really going on? Who's telling the truth? Who's faking it? What do scientists actually know - and what don...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
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| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Upper Saddle River, N.J. :
FT Press,
©2009.
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo (Requiere registro previo con correo institucional) |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Preface
- Introduction
- 1. Potions, plot, personalities : understand how science progresses and why scientists sometimes disagree
- "The scientific method"
- not as easy as pi
- With new tools, researchers can answer new questions
- but only after the bugs are worked out
- Models play a critical role in the progress of science
- What's all this talk about controversy?
- Scientific revolutions really happen
- Disputes are not a sign of science gone wrong
- The media often misrepresents disputes between scientists
- From watering hole to prime time
- birth and development of an idea
- Scientists rarely work in isolation
- Critique is very important in the publication process
- The scientific review process is not flawless
- 2. Who's who? : identify those who hold stake in an issue and what their positions are
- People, positions, purposes
- Seek out the voices of stakeholders in all categories and unearth the silent voices
- Ask yourself what motivates each stakeholder
- Remember the "broken telephone" effect and consult the original source
- 3. Decisions, decisions : elucidate all the pros and cons of a decision
- From black and white to vibrant technicolor
- Nuance is the norm
- Determine the appropriate scope of the choice and compare to relevant alternatives
- Say "yes" to one and leave the other behind
- Know the themes of risks and benefits that arise in science-related issues
- 4. Compare and contrast : place alternatives in an appropriate context to evaluate tradeoffs
- Context connections
- Compare technologies to other technologies
- Put findings in a geographical context
- Consider the historical context
- Express figures on a comprehensible scale
- Qualify the figures according to the circumstances under which they hold true
- Ask how the numbers being cited compare to "normal"
- Be careful not to be misled by averages
- For comparisons expressed as a percentage, ask "percent of what?"
- Reframe losses as gains or gains as losses
- Determine if there is a context that may explain an observation
- Putting it all together
- Choose the appropriate scope of comparison
- Find the right basis for comparison
- Consider different themes of tradeoffs
- Think about how the implications of a decision may change over time
- Evaluate risks and benefits by placing them in the appropriate contexts.
- 5. What happens if ...? : distinguish between cause and coincidence
- Cause and effect
- finding the culprit
- Brainstorm other possible causes
- Recognize that nonexperimental findings such as epidemiological observations have caveats
- Be skeptical of anecdotal evidence
- Understand how combining multiple forms of data can strengthen conclusions
- Recognize that a plausible mechanism is key to linking a cause and an effect
- 6. Specific or general : recognize how broadly the conclusions from a study may be applied
- Individuals : consider whether a result collected in one test population applies to another
- Locale : consider how applicable studies of one community or geographical region are to other locales
- Conditions : consider the possible effects of a change in conditions on experimental findings or their applicability
- Time : consider whether findings would be influenced by time, either the period of history or the duration of the study
- 7. Fun figures : see through the number jumble
- Elucidate hidden confounding factors
- Determine whether the numbers are statistically significant
- Determine whether the numbers are statistically meaningful
- Make sure the statistics apply to the situation
- Watch out for selection bias
- Ask whether a statistical change reflects reality or the way the data were collected
- Putting it all together
- 8. Society's say : discern the relationships between science and policy
- Morals and money
- influences on the progress of science
- Coercion and lies
- Ethics and oversight
- Ethics from the inside
- Unintended consequences
- Pride of nations
- Fear of the grim reaper
- Power of the people
- Follow the money
- From scientific results to policy decisions
- more morals and money
- One for all
- The precautionary principle
- Costs benefits analysis.
- 9. All the tricks in the book : get past the ploys designed to simply bypass logic
- Quirks of logic
- Failure to think outside the box
- Predisposition to link cause and effect
- Overgeneralization
- Strange ways our minds make sense of statistics
- Getting dragged down by anchors
- Confirmation bias
- Hearts and guts
- Beware of pseudo experts
- Look out for buzzwords and slogans
- Remember the story of "The Emperor's new clothes"
- Claims of ancient wisdom unknown to science should be treated as suspect
- Beware of vague, simple claims
- Claims that there are no disadvantages (or no advantages) should raise hackles
- Use caution when considering attacks by one stakeholder on another
- 10. Fitting the pieces together : know how to seek information to gain a balanced perspective
- Peeling back the layers
- Claims and caveats
- case studies
- Case 1 : chemicals, crops, and cancer
- Case 2 : the price of smelling fresh
- Case 3 : stormy future
- Case 4 : discovery of the obesity gene
- Case 5 : clear and current danger
- Case 6 : diet debacle
- Information sleuthing
- Bunk busters
- Like a blood hound
- Checking all the angles
- Conclusion. Conclusion : twenty essential applications to the tools
- Understand how science progresses and why scientists sometimes disagree
- Identify those who hold stake in an issue and what their positions are
- Elucidate all the pros and cons of a decision
- Place alternatives in an appropriate context to evaluate tradeoffs
- Distinguish between cause and coincidence
- Recognize how broadly conclusions from a study may be applied
- See through the number jumble
- Discern the relationships between science and policy
- Get past the ploys designed to simply bypass logic
- Know how to seek information to gain a balanced perspective
- Acknowledgments
- About the author
- Index.