Cognitive bias in intelligence analysis : testing the analysis of competing hypotheses method /

This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH).

Bibliographic Details
Call Number:Libro Electrónico
Main Author: Whitesmith, Martha (Author)
Format: Electronic eBook
Language:Inglés
Published: Edinburgh : Edinburgh University Press, [2020]
Series:Intelligence, surveillance and secret warfare.
Subjects:
Intelligence service > Methodology.
Judgment.
Cognitive science.
Decision making.
Judgment
Decision Making
Service des renseignements > Méthodologie.
Jugement.
Sciences cognitives.
Prise de décision.
decision making.
POLITICAL SCIENCE > Security (National & International)
Online Access:Texto completo
Table of Contents:
  • Intro
  • List of Figures and Tables
  • Acknowledgements
  • Introduction
  • Part 1 Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical Perspective
  • 1. Intelligence and Belief Acquisition
  • A Taxonomy of Intelligence
  • Intelligence as an Epistemological Act
  • How Can Knowledge Be Acquired?
  • Epistemological Implications for Intelligence
  • 2. The Efficacy of ACH in Establishing Epistemic Justification and Mitigating Cognitive Bias
  • The ACH Method
  • The Ability of ACH to Reduce Epistemic Complexity
  • Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical Perspective
  • Part 2 Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective
  • 3. The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis Scenario
  • Procedure
  • Results
  • Discussion and Conclusions
  • 4 Predicting Serial Position Effects
  • Experimental Conditions
  • Results and Discussion
  • An Examination of Previous Serial Position Effects Prediction Models
  • The Impact of Analytical Conditions on Serial Position Effects
  • 5 Predicting Confirmation Bias
  • Additional Experimental Conditions
  • Results and Discussion
  • An Examination of Previous Confirmation Bias Prediction Models
  • The Impact of Analytical Conditions on Confirmation Bias
  • Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective
  • 6 Reducing the Risk of Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis
  • Recommendations for Future Research and Best Practice for Intelligence Analysis
  • Appendix
  • Bibliography
  • Index

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