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Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics : logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives /
Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics,...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Otros Autores: | , |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Princeton, N.J. :
Princeton University Press,
c1996.
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| Colección: | Princeton paperbacks
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
MARC
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| 245 | 0 | 0 | |a Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics : |b logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives / |c edited by Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin. |
| 260 | |a Princeton, N.J. : |b Princeton University Press, |c c1996. | ||
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (x, 344 p.) | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 0 | |a Princeton paperbacks | |
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references (p. [317]-335) and index. | ||
| 588 | |a Description based on print version record and CIP data provided by publisher; resource not viewed. | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a 1. Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives / Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin -- 2. Causes and Counterfactuals in Social Science: Exploring an Analogy between Cellular Automata and Historical Processes / James D. Fearon -- 3. Counterfactual Reasoning in Western Studies of Soviet Politics and Foreign Relations / George W. Breslauer -- 4. Confronting Hitler and Its Consequences / Yuen Foong Khong -- 5. Back to the Past: Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis / Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein -- 6. Counterfactual Reasoning in Motivational Analysis: U.S. Policy toward Iran / Richard K. Herrmann and Michael P. Fischerkeller -- 7. Counterfactuals about War and Its Absence / Bruce Russett -- 8. Using Counterfactuals in Historical Analysis: Theories of Revolution / Edgar Kiser and Margaret Levi -- 9. Counterfactuals and International Affairs: Some Insights from Game Theory / Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. | |
| 520 | |a Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly. | ||
| 590 | |a JSTOR |b Books at JSTOR Demand Driven Acquisitions (DDA) | ||
| 590 | |a JSTOR |b Books at JSTOR Evidence Based Acquisitions | ||
| 590 | |a JSTOR |b Books at JSTOR All Purchased | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a World politics. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a History |x Philosophy. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Counterfactuals (Logic) | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Thought experiments. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Politique mondiale. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Expériences de pensée. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Contrefactuels (Logique) | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Histoire |x Philosophie. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a 15.03 methods and techniques of history. |2 bcl | |
| 650 | 7 | |a 89.52 political psychology. |2 bcl | |
| 650 | 7 | |a POLITICAL SCIENCE |x History & Theory. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Counterfactuals (Logic) |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a History |x Philosophy |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Thought experiments |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a World politics |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Gedankenexperiment |2 gnd | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Geschichte |2 gnd | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Internationale Politik |2 gnd | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Aufsatzsammlung |2 gnd | |
| 650 | 1 | 7 | |a Internationale politiek. |2 gtt |
| 650 | 1 | 7 | |a Counterfactual analysis. |2 gtt |
| 650 | 7 | |a Teoria politica. |2 larpcal | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Filosofia. |2 larpcal | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Historia (teoria) |2 larpcal | |
| 653 | |a Azerbaijan crisis. | ||
| 653 | |a Bay of Pigs. | ||
| 653 | |a Goldstone, Jack. | ||
| 653 | |a Halifax, Lord. | ||
| 653 | |a Iranian revolution. | ||
| 653 | |a Jowitt, Ken. | ||
| 653 | |a Khrushchev, N. | ||
| 653 | |a Leninism. | ||
| 653 | |a Napoleon. | ||
| 653 | |a Nash equilibrium. | ||
| 653 | |a Qavam. | ||
| 653 | |a Riser, E. | ||
| 653 | |a Russian revolution. | ||
| 653 | |a Stalinism. | ||
| 653 | |a Thucydides. | ||
| 653 | |a data scarcity. | ||
| 653 | |a experimental method. | ||
| 653 | |a hindsight. | ||
| 653 | |a legitimacy issues. | ||
| 653 | |a moral catastrophes. | ||
| 653 | |a nomothetic counterfactuals. | ||
| 653 | |a optimality constraints. | ||
| 653 | |a perfect equilibrium. | ||
| 653 | |a policy makers. | ||
| 653 | |a proximity criterion. | ||
| 653 | |a reification. | ||
| 653 | |a structuralism. | ||
| 653 | |a tripolar world. | ||
| 655 | 7 | |a Aufsatzsammlung. |2 gnd | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Tetlock, Philip E. |q (Philip Eyrikson), |d 1954- | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Belkin, Aaron, |d 1966- | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |t Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics |d Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press, c1996. |z 0691027927 (alk. paper) |w (DLC) 96006396 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://jstor.uam.elogim.com/stable/10.2307/j.ctv10vm1bn |z Texto completo |
| 938 | |a Project MUSE |b MUSE |n muse85779 | ||
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