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Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy.
Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a moneta...
| Cote: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Auteur principal: | |
| Autres auteurs: | , |
| Format: | Électronique eBook |
| Langue: | Inglés |
| Publié: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2018.
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| Collection: | IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;
no. 18/152. |
| Sujets: | |
| Accès en ligne: | Texto completo |
Table des matières:
- Cover; Table of Contents; Abstract; I. Introduction; II. MPMOD; III. Properties of MPMOD; IV. Impulse Response Analysis; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendix; A. MPMOD Equations; B. MPMOD Parameters, Shock Distribution, and Data Source; C. RMSE of Consensus Forecasts; Figures; Figure 1. Comparison of MPMOD Estimates with CBO Estimates; Figure 2. Sensitivity Analysis; Figure 3. Real-time Estimates and Rolling Forecasts; Figure 4. Comparison of Multivariate Filter Results with and without the Monetary Policy Block; Figure 5. MPMOD Detailed Results.
- Figure 6. Impulse Response for a 1-Standard-Deviation Positive Shock to the Output GapFigure 7. Impulse Response for a 1-Standard-Deviation Positive Shock to the Level of Potential Output; Figure 8. Impulse Response for a 1-Standard-Deviation Positive Shock to the Growth Rate of Potential Output; Figure 9. Impulse Response for a 1-Standard-Deviation Negative Shock to the Inflation Target; Appendix Figures; Figure A1. Shocks to the Level and Growth Rate of Potential Output, and to the Output Gap; Appendix Tables; Table B1. Estimation Results for Structural Model Parameters.