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Optimal fiscal and monetary policy, debt crisis and management /

The initial government debt-to-GDP ratio and the government's commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GPD ratios, the optimal consolidatio...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Cantore, Cristiano (Autor)
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, [2017]
Colección:IMF working paper ; WP/17/78.
Temas:
Acceso en línea:Texto completo

MARC

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245 1 0 |a Optimal fiscal and monetary policy, debt crisis and management /  |c prepared by Cristiano Cantore [and three others]. 
264 1 |a [Washington, D.C.] :  |b International Monetary Fund,  |c [2017] 
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490 1 |a IMF working paper ;  |v WP/17/78 
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505 0 |a Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 The Model; 2.1 Households; 2.2 Firms; 2.3 Government; 2.4 Monetary policy; 2.5 Equilibrium; 2.6 Functional forms; 3 Calibration; 4 Optimal monetary and fiscal stabilisation policy; 4.1 The Ramsey problem and the LQ approximation; 4.2 Optimal monetary-fiscal rules for normal times; 4.2.1 Results; 4.3 Crisis management of debt: how fast, how deep?; 4.4 The role of nonlinearities, larger shocks and an interest-rate peg; 5 Introducing long-term government debt; 5.1 Results; 6 Conclusions; A Equilibrium conditions; A.1 Utility function and marginal utilities. 
505 8 |a A.2 Consumption/savingA. 3 Investment; A.4 Wage setting; A.5 Production; A.6 Government; A.7 Monetary policy; A.8 Resource constraint; A.9 Autoregressive processes; B The Ramsey problem and the LQ approximation; C Data; D Moments; List of Tables; 1 Parameter values; 2 Optimal policy results for alternative government debt/GDP ratios; 3 Optimal policy results for B/4Y=0.7 allowing for superinertial monetary policy; 4 Optimal policy results for alternative government debt/GDP ratios allowing for long-term government debt; C.1 Data sources; C.2 Data transformations -- observables. 
505 8 |a D.1 Moments of key macroeconomic variablesList of Figures; 1 Gross general government debt (% of GDP) in selected advanced economies (Source: Fiscal Monitor, October 2014, International Monetary Fund); 2 Cumulative density function of the fiscal limit; 3 Effects of a shock to the level of debt under each of the four regimes, and under each of the four debt scenarios; 4 Comparison of responses of linear and nonlinear models for a jump from debt/GDP of 90% to 105%; 5 Comparison of responses in the nonlinear model for a jump of debt/GDP of different magnitudes. 
500 |a 6 Negative preference shock with an interest rate peg of various lengths7 Effects of a shock to the level of debt under optimal and time-consistent policy, and under each of the four debt scenarios, allowing for long-term government debt. 
520 3 |a The initial government debt-to-GDP ratio and the government's commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GPD ratios, the optimal consolidation is very slow. A faster pace is optimal when the economy starts from a high level of public debt implying high sovereign risk premia, unless these are suppressed via a bailout by official creditors. Under discretion, the cost of not being able to commit is reflected into a quick consolidation of government debt. Simple monetary-fiscal rules with passive fiscal policy, designed for an environment with "normal shocks", perform reasonably well in mimicking the Ramsey-optimal response to one-off government debt shocks. When the government can issue also long-term bonds-under commitment-the optimal debt consolidation pace is slower than in the case of short-term bonds only, and entails an increase in the ratio between long and short-term bonds. 
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650 0 |a Fiscal policy. 
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