Oil and the world economy : some possible futures /

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"This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But...

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Bibliographic Details
Call Number:Libro Electrónico
Main Authors: Kumhof, Michael (Author), Muir, Dirk (Author)
Corporate Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Department
Format: Electronic eBook
Language:Inglés
Published: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, Research Dept., 2012.
Series:IMF working paper ; WP12/256.
Subjects:
Petroleum products > Prices > Econometric models.
Energy consumption > Econometric models.
Produits pétroliers > Prix > Modèles économétriques.
Énergie > Consommation > Modèles économétriques.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS > Industries > General.
Energy consumption > Econometric models
Petroleum products > Prices > Econometric models
Online Access:Texto completo
Table of Contents:
  • Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Oil Supply; B. Oil Demand; 1. Baseline Scenario; 2. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 3. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 4. Technology Externality Scenario; C. World Oil Market Equilibrium; D. Calibration; III. Discussion of the Alternative Specifications; A. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 1. Supply Limitations; 2. Technical Substitutability; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario; C. Technology Externality Scenario; IV. Simulation Results; A. Baseline Scenario; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario.
  • C. Entropy Boundary Scenario and Falling Elasticity ScenarioD. Technology Externality Scenario; E. Larger Shock Scenario; F. Combined Downside Scenarios; G. Combined Downside and Growing Elasticity Scenario; H. The Assumption of Unitary Income Elasticity; I. The Assumption of Smooth Reallocation; V. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. World Crude Oil Production (in million barrels per day); 2. The Entropy Boundary in Factor Space; 3. Baseline Scenario; 4. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 5. Entropy Boundary Scenario; 6. Falling Elasticity Scenario.

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