Stalking the black swan : research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility /

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Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard--many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital...

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Bibliographic Details
Call Number:Libro Electrónico
Main Author: Posner, Kenneth A.
Format: Electronic eBook
Language:Inglés
Published: New York : Columbia Business School Publishing, ©2010.
Series:Columbia Business School publishing.
Subjects:
Investment analysis.
Investments > Forecasting.
Business cycles.
Recessions.
Business enterprises > Finance.
Corporations > Finance.
Analyse financière.
Investissements > Prévision.
Cycles économiques.
Récessions.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS > General.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS > Finance.
Corporations > Finance
Business enterprises > Finance
Business cycles
Investment analysis
Investments > Forecasting
Recessions
Online Access:Texto completo
Table of Contents:
  • Forecasting in extreme environments
  • Thinking in probabilities
  • The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling
  • Fighting information overload with strategy
  • Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance
  • Mitigating information asymmetry
  • Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis
  • The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling
  • Judgment.

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