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How much is enough? : Monte Carlo simulations of an oil stabilization fund for Nigeria /

In oil-dependent countries, a major issue is how to stabilize fiscal spending when government revenue fluctuates along with the international price of oil. A stabilization fund would allow the government to pull through an oil price trough and absorb windfall revenue when prices are high. This paper...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Bartsch, Ulrich (Autor)
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, 2006.
Colección:IMF working paper ; WP/06/142.
Temas:
Acceso en línea:Texto completo

MARC

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100 1 |a Bartsch, Ulrich,  |e author. 
245 1 0 |a How much is enough? :  |b Monte Carlo simulations of an oil stabilization fund for Nigeria /  |c prepared by Ulrich Bartsch. 
260 |a [Washington, D.C.] :  |b International Monetary Fund,  |c 2006. 
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504 |a Includes bibliographical references. 
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520 |a In oil-dependent countries, a major issue is how to stabilize fiscal spending when government revenue fluctuates along with the international price of oil. A stabilization fund would allow the government to pull through an oil price trough and absorb windfall revenue when prices are high. This paper focuses on two key issues. First, the paper proposes to base government spending on moving averages of past oil prices that are shown to behave nearly as a random walk. Second, it uses Monte Carlo simulations of a fiscal policy model to look at the probability that a given level of assets in the stabilization fund is exhausted over a certain number of years. The simulations show that with a fiscal policy based on moving averages over three to five years, a stabilization fund of about 75 percent of 2004 oil revenue would be adequate, which, in Nigeria, would equate to US$16-18 billion. 
506 |3 Use copy  |f Restrictions unspecified  |2 star  |5 MiAaHDL 
533 |a Electronic reproduction.  |b [Place of publication not identified] :  |c HathiTrust Digital Library,  |d 2010.  |5 MiAaHDL 
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505 0 |a Contents -- I. AN OIL STABILIZATION FUND FOR NIGERIA -- A. Introduction and Overview -- B. Views in the Literature -- C. Stabilizing Fiscal Spending -- D. Model Description -- E. Application to Nigeria -- References 
546 |a English. 
590 |a ProQuest Ebook Central  |b Ebook Central Academic Complete 
650 0 |a Petroleum products  |x Prices  |z Nigeria. 
650 0 |a Petroleum industry and trade  |z Nigeria  |x Finance. 
650 0 |a Fiscal policy  |z Nigeria. 
650 0 |a Structural adjustment (Economic policy)  |z Nigeria. 
650 0 |a Petroleum industry and trade  |z Nigeria. 
650 6 |a Produits pétroliers  |x Prix  |z Nigeria. 
650 6 |a Politique fiscale  |z Nigeria. 
650 6 |a Ajustement structurel (Économie)  |z Nigeria. 
650 6 |a Pétrole  |x Industrie et commerce  |z Nigeria. 
650 6 |a Pétrole  |x Industrie et commerce  |z Nigeria  |x Finances. 
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650 7 |a Petroleum industry and trade  |2 fast 
650 7 |a Fiscal policy  |2 fast 
650 7 |a Petroleum industry and trade  |x Finance  |2 fast 
650 7 |a Petroleum products  |x Prices  |2 fast 
651 7 |a Nigeria  |2 fast  |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PBJcWvf9xXVHQKFTDpVGCQq 
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776 0 8 |i Print version:  |a Bartsch, Ulrich.  |t How much is enough?.  |d Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, African Dept., ©2006  |w (OCoLC)74727882 
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