Experts in uncertainty : opinion and subjective probability in science /

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This volume contains an extensive survey and critical examination of current views on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy-making.

Bibliographic Details
Call Number:Libro Electrónico
Main Author: Cooke, Roger
Format: Electronic eBook
Language:Inglés
Published: New York : Oxford University Press, 1991.
Series:Environmental ethics and science policy.
Subjects:
Science > Philosophy.
Science > Methodology.
Uncertainty (Information theory)
Probabilities.
Decision making.
Probability
Decision Making
Sciences > Philosophie.
Sciences > Méthodologie.
Incertitude (Théorie de l'information)
Probabilités.
Prise de décision.
probability.
decision making.
SCIENCE > Philosophy & Social Aspects.
Decision making
Probabilities
Science > Methodology
Science > Philosophy
Natuurwetenschappen.
Onzekerheid.
Deskundigheid.
Methodologie.
Online Access:Texto completo
Table of Contents:
  • Think tanks and oracles
  • Expert opinion in practice
  • Probabilistic thinking
  • Heuristics and biases
  • Building rational consensus
  • Savage's normative decision theory
  • Relative frequencies and exchangeability
  • Elicitation and scoring
  • Scoring rules for evaluating and weighing assessments
  • Two experiments with calibration and entropy
  • Combining expert opinions : review of the literature
  • Classical model
  • Bayesian model
  • Psychological scaling models : paired comparisons
  • Applications.

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