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Expert Political Judgment : How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition /
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are...
| Autor principal: | |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Princeton, N.J. :
Princeton University Press,
2005.
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| Colección: | Book collections on Project MUSE.
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
MARC
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| 008 | 090923s2005 nju o 00 0 eng d | ||
| 020 | |a 9781400888818 | ||
| 020 | |z 9780691178288 | ||
| 020 | |z 9780691175973 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1017609835 | ||
| 040 | |a MdBmJHUP |c MdBmJHUP | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Tetlock, Philip E. |q (Philip Eyrikson), |d 1954- | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Expert Political Judgment : |b How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition / |c Philip E. Tetlock. |
| 264 | 1 | |a Princeton, N.J. : |b Princeton University Press, |c 2005. | |
| 264 | 3 | |a Baltimore, Md. : |b Project MUSE, |c 2018 | |
| 264 | 4 | |c ©2005. | |
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (368 pages): |b illustrations | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a Quantifying the unquantifiable -- The ego-deflating challenge of radical skepticism -- Knowing the limits of one's knowledge: foxes have better calibration and discrimination scores than hedgehogs -- Honoring reputational bets: foxes are better Bayesians than hedgehogs -- Contemplating counterfactuals: foxes are more willing than hedgehogs to entertain self-subversive scenarios -- The hedgehogs strike back -- Are we open-minded enough to acknowledge the limits of open-mindedness? -- Exploring the limits on objectivity and accountability. | |
| 520 | |a The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. | ||
| 588 | |a Description based on print version record. | ||
| 650 | 1 | 7 | |a Politieke meningen. |2 gtt |
| 650 | 1 | 7 | |a Meningsvorming. |2 gtt |
| 650 | 1 | 7 | |a Deskundigen. |2 gtt |
| 650 | 7 | |a Political psychology. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst01069667 | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Ideology. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst00966915 | |
| 650 | 7 | |a PSYCHOLOGY |x Social Psychology. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a PHILOSOPHY |x Political. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a ideology. |2 aat | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Ideologie. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Psychologie politique. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Ideology. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Political psychology. | |
| 655 | 7 | |a Electronic books. |2 local | |
| 710 | 2 | |a Project Muse. |e distributor | |
| 830 | 0 | |a Book collections on Project MUSE. | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |z Texto completo |u https://projectmuse.uam.elogim.com/book/52760/ |
| 945 | |a Project MUSE - Custom Collection | ||
| 945 | |a Project MUSE - Archive Complete Supplement VI | ||
| 945 | |a Project MUSE - Archive Political Science and Policy Studies Supplement VI | ||