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Expert Political Judgment : How Good Is It? How Can We Know? /
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are...
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| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Princeton, N.J. :
Princeton University Press,
2005.
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| Colección: | Book collections on Project MUSE.
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Quantifying the unquantifiable
- The ego-deflating challenge of radical skepticism
- Knowing the limits of one's knowledge: foxes have better calibration and discrimination scores than hedgehogs
- Honoring reputational bets: foxes are better Bayesians than hedgehogs
- Contemplating counterfactuals: foxes are more willing than hedgehogs to entertain self-subversive scenarios
- The hedgehogs strike back
- Are we open-minded enough to acknowledge the limits of open-mindedness?
- Exploring the limits on objectivity and accountability.