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Blindside : How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics /
"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed event...
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| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Washington, D.C. :
Brookings Institution Press,
2007.
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| Colección: | Book collections on Project MUSE.
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama
- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner
- Cases: looking back
- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes
- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz
- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale
- Cases: looking ahead
- The once and future DARPA / William B. Bonvillian
- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin
- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett
- Forecasting
- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert
- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / M. Mitchell Waldrop
- What could be
- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook
- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett
- American scenarios
- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Ruth Wedgwood, Anne Applebaum, Bernard-Henri Levy, Josef Joffe, Peter Schwartz, and Francis Fukuyama
- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama
- Notes
- Contributors
- Index.