Domino effect : its prediction and prevention /

Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:TP150.S24
Otros Autores: Khan, Faisal I., Cozzani, Valerio, Reniers, Genserik L. L.
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Cambridge : Academic Press, 2021.
Colección:Methods in chemical process safety ; v. 5.
Temas:
Chemical processes > Safety measures.
Proc�ed�es chimiques > S�ecurit�e > Mesures.
Chemical processes > Safety measures
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • Intro
  • Domino Effect: Its Prediction and Prevention
  • Copyright
  • Contents
  • Contributors
  • Preface
  • Chapter One: Domino effect: Its prediction and prevention-An overview
  • 1. Background
  • 1.1. Definition
  • 1.2. A brief history
  • 2. Evolving methods for domino effect assessment
  • 2.1. Deterministic approaches
  • 2.1.1. Thresholds for heat radiation
  • 2.1.2. Thresholds for overpressure
  • 2.1.3. Thresholds for fragment projection
  • 2.2. Probabilistic approaches
  • 2.2.1. Probit models
  • 2.2.2. Other probabilistic models
  • 3. Evolving methods for domino effect prevention
  • 3.1. Technical point of views to prevent domino effect
  • 3.2. Managerial point of views to prevent domino effect
  • 4. Purpose and organization of this volume
  • References
  • Chapter Two: State of the art in domino effect modeling
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Quantitative risk assessment of domino effect and escalation scenarios
  • 2.1. Analytical methods
  • 2.2. Graphical methods
  • 2.3. Simulation methods
  • 3. Equipment vulnerability models
  • 3.1. Damage due to blast waves
  • 3.2. Damage due to fragment impact
  • 3.3. Damage due to fire
  • 4. Conclusions
  • References
  • Chapter Three: Fire driven domino effect
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Equipment damage caused by fire
  • 2.1. Direct mechanical damage caused by fire
  • 2.2. Internal pressurization
  • 2.3. Experimental tests
  • 3. Modeling the behavior of equipment exposed to fire
  • 3.1. Introduction to the modeling approaches
  • 3.2. Modeling of equipment exposure to fire
  • 3.3. Zone models
  • 3.4. FEM and CFD approach to the modeling of equipment heat-up and failure
  • 3.5. Threshold values for vessel failure
  • 3.6. Inherent safety criteria for the prevention of domino effect triggered by fire
  • 4. Conclusions
  • References
  • Chapter Four: Explosion (overpressure) driven domino effect
  • 1. Introduction.
  • 2. The characterization of explosion by overpressure
  • 3. Overpressure-driven domino effects
  • 4. Vulnerability functions based on overpressure
  • 5. Conclusions
  • References
  • Chapter Five: Projectile (missile) driven domino effect
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Models for the identification of fragment number and fragment shape
  • 3. Models of the assessment of fragment trajectory and fragment impact
  • 4. Models for the assessment of damage caused by fragments
  • 5. Frequency calculation for domino events triggered by fragment impact
  • 5.1. General approach to calculate the frequency for domino events triggered by fragment impact
  • 5.2. Typical values of probabilities used to calculate the frequency for domino events triggered by fragment projection
  • 6. Analysis of a case-study
  • 6.1. Description of the case study
  • 6.2. Case study results
  • 6.2.1. Fragmentation pattern
  • 6.2.2. Fragmentation trajectory
  • 6.2.3. Comparison among predictive analysis and actual accident consequences
  • 7. Conclusions
  • References
  • Chapter Six: Natural events driven domino effect
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Domino effect in Natech scenarios
  • 3. Quantitative risk assessment of domino effect in Natech scenarios
  • 4. Example of application
  • 5. Conclusions
  • References
  • Chapter Seven: Mitigation of domino effect
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. The definition and role of safety barriers
  • 3. Safety barriers for the mitigation of domino effect
  • 3.1. Inherent safety barriers
  • 3.2. Passive safety barriers
  • 3.3. Active and procedural/emergency safety barriers
  • 3.4. Prevention and mitigation of domino effect triggered by fire
  • 3.5. Prevention and mitigation of domino effect triggered by overpressure
  • 3.6. Prevention and mitigation of domino effect triggered by fragments.
  • 4. Quantitative assessment of domino effect accounting for safety barrier performance
  • 4.1. Integration of safety barrier performance on probabilistic assessment of escalation
  • 4.2. Classification of safety barriers and metrics for performance assessment
  • 4.3. Modified event tree analysis including safety barrier performance
  • 4.4. Integration of safety barrier performance on risk assessment methodologies
  • 5. Quantitative assessment of safety barrier performance
  • 5.1. Approach to safety barrier performance assessment
  • 5.2. Baseline performance for safety barriers applied in the mitigation of domino effect
  • 5.2.1. Active safety barriers
  • 5.2.2. Passive safety barriers
  • 5.2.3. Procedural/emergency safety barriers
  • 6. Conclusions
  • References
  • Chapter Eight: Advanced methods for risk assessment and management of domino effect
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. CFD/FEM models
  • 2.1. Model procedure and effectiveness
  • 2.2. Applications of CFD models
  • 2.2.1. Fire-induced domino effect
  • 2.2.2. Explosion-induced domino effect
  • 2.2.3. Gas leakage-induced domino effect
  • 2.3. Application of finite element method (FEM) on domino effect analysis
  • 3. Probabilistic models
  • 3.1. Modeling procedure and effectiveness
  • 3.2. Applications of probabilistic models
  • 3.2.1. Vulnerability modeling
  • 3.2.2. Accident evolution modeling and risk assessment
  • 3.2.3. Risk management
  • 4. Other advanced models
  • 4.1. Model effectiveness
  • 4.2. Applications of models
  • 4.2.1. Vulnerability modeling
  • 4.2.2. Accident evolution modeling and risk assessment
  • 4.2.3. Risk management
  • References
  • Chapter Nine: Domino effect security risk assessment
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Threat analysis
  • 3. Attractiveness analysis
  • 4. Vulnerability of installations exposed to attacks.
  • 5. Vulnerability of installations exposed to subsequent domino effects
  • 5.1. Escalation induced by heat radiation
  • 5.2. Escalation induced by overpressure
  • 5.3. Escalation induced by fragments
  • 6. Consequence analysis
  • 6.1. Loss of human life
  • 6.2. Property damage
  • 6.3. Other consequences
  • 6.4. Total consequence evaluation
  • 7. Conclusions
  • References
  • Chapter Ten: Bayesian methods in domino effect analysis
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Bayesian networks
  • 2.1. Conventional Bayesian network
  • 2.2. Dynamic Bayesian network
  • 2.3. Influence diagram
  • 3. Domino effect modeling
  • 3.1. Application of Bayesian network
  • 3.2. Application of dynamic Bayesian network
  • 4. Domino effect mitigating
  • 4.1. Modeling add-on safety systems
  • 4.2. Modeling firefighting
  • 4.2.1. Application of influence diagram
  • 4.2.2. Application of dynamic influence diagram
  • 5. Application of Noisy-OR
  • 6. Summary
  • References
  • Chapter Eleven: Uncertainty in domino effects analysis
  • 1. Importance of the data in domino effect analysis
  • 1.1. The importance of calculation probability in domino
  • 1.1.1. Probability structure of domino scene
  • 1.1.2. Fire heat radiation damage probability
  • 1.1.3. Probability of damage caused by the explosion shock wave
  • 1.1.4. Probability of damage caused by explosive fragments
  • 1.2. Importance of the databases in domino effect analysis
  • 2. Source of the data
  • 2.1. Source of the main data
  • 2.2. Other databases
  • 3. Uncertainty in the data and models
  • 3.1. Introduction of uncertainty in risk assessment
  • 3.1.1. The concept of uncertainty
  • 3.1.2. The type of uncertainty
  • 3.2. Uncertainty in data of domino effect
  • 3.3. Uncertainty in the models of domino effect
  • 4. How to conduct uncertainty analysis
  • 4.1. Introduction of uncertainty analysis
  • 4.2. Uncertainty analysis methods.
  • 4.2.1. Bayesian network technology
  • 4.2.2. Random sampling guesswork
  • 4.2.3. Monte Carlo simulation
  • 4.2.4. Latin hypercube sampling
  • 4.2.5. The product limit estimate
  • 4.3. Examples for conducting uncertainty analysis
  • 4.3.1. The vapor cloud explosion model
  • 4.3.2. Pipeline gas leakage model
  • 4.4. Combined uncertainty and deterministic analysis
  • References
  • Chapter Twelve: Approaches to domino effects evolution and risk assessment
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Classification of modeling approaches
  • 2.1. Vulnerability modeling
  • 2.1.1. Threshold methods
  • 2.1.2. Distance-based approach
  • 2.1.3. Probit models
  • 2.1.4. CFD/FEM methods
  • 2.2. Evolution modeling and risk assessment of domino effects
  • 2.2.1. Analytical methods
  • 2.2.2. Graphical methods
  • 2.2.3. Simulation methods
  • 3. Conclusions
  • References
  • Chapter Thirteen: Domino effect risk management: Decision making methods
  • 1. Introduction of risk management and decision making
  • 2. Multi criteria decision-making (MCDM)
  • 3. Quantification of qualitative data for multi criteria problems
  • 4. Multi-objective decision making (MODM)
  • 4.1. Concept
  • 4.2. Methods
  • 4.3. Applications
  • 4.4. Process safety
  • 4.4.1. Domino effect
  • 5. Exact and heuristic approaches
  • 5.1. Exact methods
  • 5.2. Meta-heuristic methods
  • 5.2.1. NSGAII algorithm
  • 6. Stochastic multi-objective programing
  • 6.1. Multi-objectivity relaxation
  • 6.2. Uncertainty relaxation
  • 7. Applications
  • References
  • Chapter Fourteen: Methods for domino effect risk management decision-making
  • 1. Introduction of a risk management framework
  • 2. Cost-benefit management methods
  • 2.1. Economic model for tackling intentional domino effects
  • 2.1.1. Threat analysis
  • 2.1.2. Vulnerability assessment of installations against direct intentional attacks.

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