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Solar energy forecasting and resource assessment /
Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment is a vital text for solar energy professionals, addressing a critical gap in the core literature of the field. As major barriers to solar energy implementation, such as materials cost and low conversion efficiency, continue to fall, issues of intermit...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Otros Autores: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Oxford :
Elsevier Ltd.,
2013.
|
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
MARC
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| 245 | 0 | 0 | |a Solar energy forecasting and resource assessment / |c Jan Kleissl. |
| 264 | 1 | |a Oxford : |b Elsevier Ltd., |c 2013. | |
| 264 | 4 | |c �2013 | |
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (xxii, 416 pages) : |b illustrations (some color) | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 347 | |a text file |2 rda | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index. | ||
| 588 | 0 | |a Online resource; title from pdf information screen (Ebsco, viewed August 1, 2013). | |
| 505 | 0 | |a Note continued: References / J. Kleissl / J. Stein / M. Lave -- 8.1. Classification of Solar-Forecasting Methods / Jan Kleissl / Richardo Marquez / Carlos F.M. Coimbra -- 8.2. Deterministic and Stochastic Forecasting Approaches / Jan Kleissl / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez -- 8.2.1.A Critical Appraisal of Physically-Based Forecasting Approaches / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Jan Kleissl / Richardo Marquez -- 8.2.2. Satellite Forecasts / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Jan Kleissl / Richardo Marquez -- 8.2.3. Sky-Imager Forecasts / Jan Kleissl / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez -- 8.2.4. Data Inputs to Stochastic-Learning Approaches / Jan Kleissl / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez -- 8.2.5. Section Summary / Jan Kleissl / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez -- 8.3. Metrics for Evaluation of Solar-Forecasting Models / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Jan Kleissl / Richardo Marquez -- 8.3.1. Solar Resource Variability / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Jan Kleissl / Richardo Marquez -- 8.3.2. Conventional Metrics for Model Evaluation / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Jan Kleissl / Richardo Marquez -- 8.3.3.A Time Horizon-Invariant (THI) Metric / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez / Jan Kleissl -- 8.4. Applying the THI Metric to Evaluate Persistence, and Nonlinear Autoregressive Forecast Models / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez / Jan Kleissl -- 8.4.1. NAR and NARX Forecasting Models / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez / Jan Kleissl -- 8.4.2.Comparison of Forecasting Models and Persistence / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez / Jan Kleissl -- 8.4.3.Comparison with a Satellite Cloud-Motion Forecast Model / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez / Jan Kleissl -- 8.5. Conclusions / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez / Jan Kleissl -- References / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Richardo Marquez / Jan Kleissl -- 9.1. Challenges in Short Term Solar Forecasting / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.2. Applications / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.2.1. Utility-scale Solar-Power Facilities / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.2.2. Distributed PV on Urban Feeders / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.2.3. PV-Tied Energy Storage / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.3. Sky-Imaging Hardware / Dung Nguyen / Ben Kurtz / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Bryan Urquhart / Chi Wai Chow -- 9.3.1.Components of Ground Image-Based Forecasting / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.3.2. Historical Review of Digital Sky Photography for Atmospheric Research / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.3.3. Optical- and Imaging-System Design of the UCSD Sky Imager / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.3.4. High-Dynamic-Range Imaging / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.4. Sky-Imagery Analysis Techniques / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.4.1. Image-Processing Techniques for Cloud Detection and Opacity Classification / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.4.2. Determination of Cloud-Base Height through Stereography / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.4.3. Cloud Velocity Estimation / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.5. Case Study: Copper Mountain / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.5.1. Experimental Setup / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.5.2. Forecast Methodology / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.5.3. Power-Output Forecasts with Sky Imagery / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.5.4. Error Metrics / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Dung Nguyen / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Jan Kleissl -- 9.5.5. Forecast Performance / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.6. Conclusions / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.6.1. Future Applications / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- 9.6.2. Final Remarks / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen -- References / Bryan Urquhart / Mohamed Ghonima / Jan Kleissl / Ben Kurtz / Chi Wai Chow / Dung Nguyen. | |
| 505 | 0 | |a Note continued: 10.1. The SolarAnywhere Solar Resource and Forecast Data Service / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez -- 10.1.1. Historical Data / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez -- 10.1.2. Forecast Data / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez -- 10.2. Solaranywhere Forecast Models / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez -- 10.2.1. Short-Term Cloud-Motion Vector Forecasts / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez -- 10.2.2. Numerical Weather Prediction Forecasts / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez -- 10.3. Model Evaluation: Standard Resolution / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez -- 10.3.1. Single-Point Ground-Truth Validation / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez -- 10.3.2. Extended-Area Validations / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez -- 10.3.3. Intercomparison of NWP Solar Forecast Models / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez -- 10.4. Performance Evaluation: 1 km, 1 min Forecasts / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez -- Concluding Remarks / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez -- References / Tom E. Hoff / Richard Perez -- 11.1. Solar Energy Penetration in Germany / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.2. Overview of the Satellite Forecast Process / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.3. Irradiance from Satellite Data / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.3.1. Meteosat Satellite / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.3.2. Heliosat Method / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.4. Cloud-Motion Vectors / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.4.1. Detection of Cloud Motion / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.4.2. Determination of Model Parameters / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.4.3. Forecasting by Extrapolation of Motion / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.4.4. Postprocessing: Smoothing / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.5. Evaluation / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.5.1. Evaluation Measures and Period / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.5.2. Reference Forecasts: ECMWF and Persistence / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.6. Evaluation of CMV Forecasts / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.6.1. Single-Site Forecasts / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.6.2. Regional Forecasts / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.6.3. Error Characterization / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.7. PV-Power Forecasting / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 11.8. Summary and Outlook / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- References / Jan K�uhnert / Detlev Heinemann / Elke Lorenz -- 12.1. Introduction / Vincent E. Larson -- 12.2. Steps Required to Produce a NWP Forecast / Vincent E. Larson -- 12.2.1. Determining Atmosphere Initial State and Grid Resolution / Vincent E. Larson -- 12.2.2. Statistical Postprocessing / Vincent E. Larson -- 12.3.Comparison of Model Configurations for Four Operational Models (ECMWF, NAM, GFS, RAP): Spatial and Temporal Coverage, Deep and Shallow Cumulus, Turbulent Transport, Cloud Fraction, Cloud Overlap, Stratiform Microphysics, Aerosol, Shortwave Radiative Transfer / Vincent E. Larson -- 12.4. Possible Sources of Error in Forecasted Irradiance / Vincent E. Larson -- 12.4.1. Noncloudy Scenes / Vincent E. Larson -- 12.4.2. Cloudy Scenes / Vincent E. Larson -- 12.4.3.A Need for Caution / Vincent E. Larson -- 12.5. Present-Day Accuracy of Solar-Irradiance Forecasts / Vincent E. Larson -- 12.6. Conclusions / Vincent E. Larson -- References / Vincent E. Larson -- 13.1. Introduction / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.2. DA Methods and Their Use / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.2.1. Overview / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.2.2. Major NWP DA Centers / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.2.3. Data Cycling / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.2.4. Data Quality Control / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.2.5. Data Thinning / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.2.6. Performance Metrics / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.3. How does DA Work? / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.3.1. Bayesian Theory / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.3.2. DA Components: Forward Models, Mathematical Adjoints, Operators, and Cost Function / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.3.3. Variational DA / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.3.4. Incremental Variational DA / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.3.5. Ensemble DA / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.3.6. Particle Filters / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.4. Solar-Energy DA Challenges / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.4.1. Nonlinear Physics / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.4.2. Non-Gaussian Physics / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.4.3. Noncontinuous Physics / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.4.4. Examples of Cloudy DA / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.5. Future Trends / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 13.6. Conclusions / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones. | |
| 505 | 0 | |a Note continued: References / Steven J. Fletcher / Andrew S. Jones -- 14.1. Motivation: Forecasts of Irradiance, Variability, and Uncertainty / Patrick Mathiesen / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl -- 14.1.1. Defining Stakeholder Needs / Patrick Mathiesen / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl -- 14.1.2. Independent System Operator Perspective / Patrick Mathiesen / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl -- 14.1.3. Energy-Trader Perspective / Patrick Mathiesen / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl -- 14.2. Solar Forecasting Using NWP at GL-Garrad Hassan / Patrick Mathiesen / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl -- 14.2.1. Publicly Available NWP Models / Patrick Mathiesen / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl -- 14.2.2. The WRF Model at GL-Garrad Hassan / Patrick Mathiesen / Jan Kleissl / Craig Collier -- 14.2.3. Model Output Statistics, Confidence Intervals, Ramp Probability / Patrick Mathiesen / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl -- 14.3. Case Studies on Meeting Stakeholder Needs / Jan Kleissl / Craig Collier / Patrick Mathiesen -- 14.3.1. ISO Perspective / Craig Collier / Patrick Mathiesen / Jan Kleissl -- 14.3.2. Energy Trader Perspective / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl / Patrick Mathiesen -- 14.4. Summary and Conclusions / Patrick Mathiesen / Craig Collier / Jan Kleissl -- References / Patrick Mathiesen / Jan Kleissl / Craig Collier -- 15.1. Introduction / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Hugo T.C. Pedro -- 15.2. Baseline Methods for Comparison / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra -- 15.2.1. Persistence Methods / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra -- 15.2.2. ARIMA Models / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra -- 15.2.3.kNN and ANN / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra -- 15.3. Genetic Algorithms / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra -- 15.3.1. GA/ANN: Scanning the Solution Space / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra -- 15.3.2. Selection, Crossover, Mutation, and Stopping Criterion / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra -- 15.4. Qualitative Performance Assessment / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Hugo T.C. Pedro -- 15.5. Performance of Stochastic-Learning Methods with No Exogenous Variables / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra -- 15.5.1. Clear-Sky Model / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra -- 15.5.2. Quantitative Performance of ARIMA, kNN, ANN, GA/ANN / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Hugo T.C. Pedro -- 15.6. Sky-Imaging Data as Exogenous Variables for Solar Forecasts / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra -- 15.6.1. Image Processing / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Hugo T.C. Pedro -- 15.6.2. Deterministic Results / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra -- 15.7. Stochastic Learning Using Exogenous Variables: The National Digital Forecasting Database / Carlos F.M. Coimbra / Hugo T.C. Pedro -- 15.8. Conclusions / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra -- References / Hugo T.C. Pedro / Carlos F.M. Coimbra. | |
| 520 | |a Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment is a vital text for solar energy professionals, addressing a critical gap in the core literature of the field. As major barriers to solar energy implementation, such as materials cost and low conversion efficiency, continue to fall, issues of intermittency and reliability have come to the fore. Scrutiny from solar project developers and their financiers on the accuracy of long-term resource projections and grid operators{u2019} concerns about variable short-term power generation have made the field of solar forecasting and resource assessment pivotally important. This volume provides an authoritative voice on the topic, incorporating contributions from an internationally recognized group of top authors from both industry and academia, focused on providing information from underlying scientific fundamentals to practical applications and emphasizing the latest technological developments driving this discipline forward. The only reference dedicated to forecasting and assessing solar resources enables a complete understanding of the state of the art from the world{u2019}s most renowned experts. Demonstrates how to derive reliable data on solar resource availability and variability at specific locations to support accurate prediction of solar plant performance and attendant financial analysis. Provides cutting-edge information on recent advances in solar forecasting through monitoring, satellite and ground remote sensing, and numerical weather prediction. | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Solar energy. | |
| 650 | 1 | 2 | |a Solar Energy |0 (DNLM)D012993 |
| 650 | 1 | 3 | |a solar energy. |
| 650 | 6 | |a �Energie solaire. |0 (CaQQLa)201-0029679 | |
| 650 | 7 | |a solar power. |2 aat |0 (CStmoGRI)aat300055225 | |
| 650 | 7 | |a TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING |x Mechanical. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Solar energy |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst01124984 | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kleissl, Jan, |e editor. | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://sciencedirect.uam.elogim.com/science/book/9780123971777 |z Texto completo |