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Financial whirlpools : a systems story of the great global recession /

"How do economists reconcile their expertise with their failures to predict and manage the 2008 financial crisis? This book goes a long way toward an answer by using systems theory to reveal the complex interdependence of factors and forces behind the crisis. In her fully integrated view of the...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:	Libro Electrónico
Autor principal:	Higgins, Karen L.
Formato:	Electrónico eBook
Idioma:	Inglés
Publicado:	Kidlington, Oxford, UK : Academic Press, �2013.
Temas:	2008 - 2009 Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009. System theory. Systems Theory Economic Recession Crise financi�ere mondiale, 2008-2009. Th�eorie des syst�emes. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS > Economic History.
Acceso en línea:	Texto completo

Tabla de Contenidos:

pt. 1. Foundations
pt. 2. The yin: human behaviors
pt. 3. The yang: economic mechanisms
pt. 4. Yin and yang: integration.
Machine generated contents note: pt. I Foundations
1. Lines or Circles: The Basics of Systems Thinking
1.1.A Brief History of Systems Thinking
1.2. Application and Relevance of Systems Thinking
1.3. Linear Thinking and Systems Thinking
1.4.Complexity Economics and Systems Thinking
1.5. Systems Thinking Concepts
1.6. Loops
1.6.1. Feedback Processes
1.6.1.1. Reinforcing Feedback
1.6.1.2. Balancing Feedback
1.6.2. Feed-Forward Processes
1.7. Lags: Time Delays
1.8. Limits to Growth
1.8.1.S-Shaped Growth
1.8.2. Overshoot and Col lapse
1.9. Levers: Points of Power
1.10. Visualization Tools
1.10.1. Behavior-over-Time Graphs
1.10.2. Causal Loop Diagrams
1.10.3. Balancing Feedback Loop
1.10.4. Balancing Feedback Loop with Delays
1.10.5. Reinforcing Feedback and Feed-Forward Loops
1.10.6. Limits to Growth
1.10.6.1.S-Shaped Growth
1.10.6.2. Overshoot and Collapse
1.11. System Boundaries
1.12. Systems Thinking Philosophy
1.13. Summary
2. As the Gears Turn: Policies, Practices, Markets, and Risk
2.1. Timeline
2.2. Federal Economic Policies
2.2.1. Monetary Policy
2.2.1.1. Interest Rates
2.2.1.2. Inflation Targets
2.2.1.3. Delays and Other Forces
2.2.2. Housing Policies
2.3. Home Mortgage Lending Practices
2.3.1. Lending Strategies
2.3.1.1. Relaxed Standards
2.3.1.2. More Loans to Higher-Risk Borrowers
2.3.2. Types of Loans
2.4. Markets and Human Behavior
2.5. Housing Market
2.6. Financial Market
2.6.1. Securitization: Mortgage-Backed Securities
2.6.2. Structuring: Collateralized Debt Obligations
2.6.3. Derivatives: Credit Default Swaps
2.7. Risk
2.8. Systems Interpretation
2.8.1. Balancing Loop for Monetary Policy
2.8.2. Balancing Loops for Housing Supply and Demand
2.8.3. Influence of the Housing Market on Securities and Derivatives
2.8.4. Candidate Leverage Points
2.8.5. Current Activities
2.8.6. Cautions
2.9. Summary
pt. II The Yin: Human Behaviors
3. Where Can I Buy One? Humans and the Economy
3.1. History of Human Psychology in Economic Theory
3.1.1. Behavioral Economics
3.1.2. Neuroeconomics
3.2. The Role of Values and Beliefs in Economics
3.3. The Role of Expectations in Economics
3.4. The Role of Human Nature in Economics
3.5. Summary
4. Who Are You Anyway? Values, Beliefs, Norms, and Behaviors
4.1. American Culture
4.1.1. Value Patterns
4.1.1.1. Entitlement to Success
4.1.1.2. Entitlement to Material Comfort
4.1.1.3. Entitlement to Equality
4.1.1.4. Entitlement to Property
4.1.2. Beliefs
4.1.2.1. The American Dream
4.1.2.2. Consumeritis
4.1.2.3. Consumer Credit is Mine
4.2. Corporate Cultures
4.3. Systems Thinking Interpretation
4.3.1. Candidate Leverage Points
4.3.1.1. Alternate Beliefs
4.3.1.2. Leaders' Influence on Corporate Culture
4.3.2. Current Activities
4.4. Summary
5. Visions of Grandeur: Expectations and Behaviors
5.1. Expectations and the Economic Environment
5.1.1. Confidence Levels
5.1.2. Effects of the Environment on Expectations
5.1.3. Environment before the Crisis
5.1.4. Expectations before the Crisis
5.1.4.1. Expectation One: Current Economic Conditions Will Continue Indefinitely
5.1.4.2. Expectation Two: Housing Prices are Rising so I'd Better Buy Now
5.1.4.3. Expectation Three: My Financial Security is Permanent, so I Can Afford to Spend Money
5.1.4.4. Expectation Four: Because Others are Doing it, it Must Be Good, so I Will Do it Too
5.1.4.5. Expectation Five: My Success Will Continue because I'm Good and I'm Lucky
5.1.4.6. Expectation Six: I'll Be Able to Manage My Loan Payments Even Better in the Future
5.1.4.7. Expectation Seven (for mortgage lenders and sellers of mortgage-related securities): Borrowers Will Not Default on Home Loans
5.2. Systems Thinking Interpretation
5.2.1. Expectation Reinforcing Feed-Forward Loop
5.2.2. Demand Reinforcing Feedback Loop
5.2.3. Candidate Leverage Points
5.2.3.1. Demand Leverage
5.2.3.2. Expectations Leverage
5.2.4. Current Activities
5.3. Summary
6.A Crisis of Human Proportions: Ethics and Behaviors
6.1. Mortgage Fraud
6.1.1. Fraud for Housing
6.1.2. Fraud for Profit
6.2. Disreputable Lending
6.2.1. Misleading Loan Descriptions
6.2.2. Liar Loans
6.3. Shady Corporate Strategy
6.3.1. Lofty Goals
6.3.2. Devious Tactics and Tantalizing Incentives
6.4. Deceitful Dealings
6.4.1. Corporate Fraud
6.4.2. Securities Fraud
6.4.2.1. Inappropriate Ratings
6.4.2.2. Collusion for Volume
6.4.2.3. Poor and Misleading Information
6.4.3. Ego-Driven Behaviors
6.5. Systems Thinking Interpretation
6.6. Summary
7. Self Speaks Loudly and Carries a Big Stick: Sources of Unethical Behavior.
7.1. Ethics and Its Purpose
7.2. Ethical Issue: Self-Interest Versus Social Interest
7.3. Human Nature Traits of Self-Interest
7.3.1. Survival
7.3.2. Significance
7.3.3. Belonging
7.3.4. Pleasure
7.4. Societal Needs
7.5. Economic Environment
7.6. Repositories of Moral Grounding
7.6.1. Moral Values
7.6.2. American Culture
7.6.3. Corporate Cultures
7.6.4. Wall Street Culture
7.7. Concern About Consequences
7.7.1. Secrecy
7.7.2. Disregard
7.8. Greed and Hubris
7.9. Short-Term Narrow-Focused Rewards
7.10. Historic Precedence
7.11. Systems Thinking Interpretation
7.11.1. Candidate Leverage Point
7.11.2. Current Activities
7.12. Summary
pt. III The Yang: Economic Mechanisms
8. What Goes Up Must Come Down: The Housing Bubble
8.1. Bubble History
8.2. The Rise and Fall of the Housing Bubble
8.3. Affordability and the Housing Bubble
8.4. Supply, Demand, and the Housing Bubble
8.4.1. Demand Indicators
8.4.2. Supply Indicators
8.4.3. Housing Bubble Behavior: 2000 to 2006
8.4.4. Housing Bubble Behavior: 2006 to 2008
8.4.5. Housing Bubble Behavior: 2008 to 2010
8.5. Reasons for Supply and Demand Shifts
8.5.1. Inflation
8.5.2. Income
8.5.3. Monetary Policy
8.5.4. Other Forces
8.5.4.1. Shift in Demand: Consumer Expectation
8.5.4.2. Shift in Demand: Financial Resources and Availability of Credit
8.5.4.3. Shift in Supply: Expectation of Builders
8.5.4.4. Shift in Supply: Unanticipated Influx of Homes for Sale
8.6. Supply and Demand Shift Synopsis
8.7. Systems Thinking Interpretation
8.7.1. Stability
8.7.2. Growth
8.7.3. Decline
8.7.4. Candidate Leverage Points
8.8. Summary
9. On Top of Debt Mountain: High-Risk Loans and Credit
9.1. Journey Segment One: Easy Availability of Credit
9.1.1. Policies and Incentives for Home Buying
9.1.2.Competition for Mortgage Loan Market
9.1.3. Expanded Securitization of Subprime Loans
9.1.4. Convergence of Pressure for Easy Credit
9.2. Journey Segment Two: High-Risk Loans
9.2.1. Subprime and ARM Loans
9.2.2. Growth of Risk
9.3. Journey Segment Three: Accumulation of Debt
9.3.1. Home Ownership Loans
9.3.2. Home Equity Loans
9.3.3. Consumer Credit
9.3.4. Systems Description of Debt Growth
9.3.5. Weakened Limits for Debt
9.4. Journey Segment Four: Defaults, Bankruptcies, and Foreclosures
9.4.1. Waves of Loan Defaults
9.4.2. Transition from Default to Delinquency and Foreclosure
9.5. Systems Thinking Interpretation
9.5.1. Housing Bubble and Debt Dynamics
9.5.2. Debt, Defaults, Bankruptcies, and Foreclosures
9.5.3. Foreclosures, Expectations, and Housing Prices
9.5.4. Foreclosures and Supply
9.5.5. The Housing Bubble Inflates
9.5.6. The Housing Bubble Bursts
9.5.6.1. Overshoot-and-Col lapse of Debt
9.5.6.2. Overshoot-and-Col lapse of Expectation
9.5.6.3. Overshoot-and-Col lapse of Housing Prices
9.5.7. Future Forecast
9.5.7.1. Shadow Inventory
9.5.7.2. Erosion of Capacity for Economic Growth
9.5.8. Candidate Leverage Points
9.5.8.1. Leverage to Dampen Growth of Housing Prices and Risky Debt
9.5.8.2. Leverage to Slow Decay
9.5.9. Current Activities
9.6. Summary
10. The Risk Tiger Pounces: Financial Market, Risk, and Securitization
10.1. Securitization, Structuring, and Derivatives in the Financial Market
10.1.1. The Money-Making Machine
10.1.2. Risk Multipliers
10.1.3. Securities Issuers
10.1.3.1. Volume of Mortgage-Backed Securities
10.1.3.2. Volume of Collateralized Debt Obligations
10.1.3.3. Other Risk Multipliers from Securities Sellers
10.1.4. CDS Sellers
10.1.5. Federal Government
10.1.6. Rating Agencies
10.1.7. Financial Organizations
10.2. Systems Thinking Interpretation
10.2.1. Defaults in the Financial Market
10.2.2. Consequences
10.2.3. Systems Integration of Loans, Securities, and Derivatives
10.2.4. Candidate Leverage Points
10.2.5. Current Activities
10.3. Summary
pt. IV Yin and Yang: Integration
11. Human Roots Are Deep: Yin Meets Yang
11.1. Expectations
11.2. Self-Interest and Social Interest
11.2.1. Moral Grounding
11.2.2. Awareness
11.2.3. Human Defense Mechanisms
11.2.4. Short-Term Narrow-Focused Rewards
11.3. Material Desires
11.4. Greed
11.5. Economic Environment
11.6. Search for Meaning
11.7. Systems Thinking Interpretation
11.7.1. Integrating Self-Interest and Social Interest with Debt Dynamics
11.7.2. Integrating Greed, Ethics, and Consequences
11.7.3. Integrating the Housing and Financial Markets
11.7.4. Candidate Leverage Points
11.7.4.1. Category 1: Expand Awareness of Consequences
11.7.4.2. Category 2: Harness Corporate Influence
11.7.5. Integrating Human-Related Levers
11.7.6. Current Activities
11.7.6.1. Self-Interest
11.7.6.2. Concern about Consequences and Social Interest
11.8. Summary.
12. It's a Small World After All: Global Implications and the Road Ahead
12.1. Economic Truths About the Crisis
12.2. Summary of Crisis Dynamics
12.3. An Expanded Systems Perspective
12.3.1. Reinforcing and Balancing Loops
12.3.2. External Influences
12.3.3. Outputs
12.3.4. Global System Interactions. 12.3.4.1. Monetary Policy Balancing Loop
12.3.4.2. National Economic Health Reinforcing Loop
12.3.4.3. International Economic Health Reinforcing Loop
12.4. Conclusions from the Expanded Systems View
12.4.1. Leverage Areas, Potential Pitfalls, and Recommended Actions
12.4.1.1. Area 1: Limit High-Risk Debt
12.4.1.2. Area 2: Reform the Market for Securities and Derivatives
12.4.1.3. Area 3: Decrease Unethical Behavior
12.4.1.4. Area 4: Apply Positive Motivation
12.4.1.5. Area 5: Maintain Confidence in the Economy
12.4.2. Strategic Leverage
12.5. Systems Thinking as a Tool
12.5.1. Balance
12.5.2. Lag
12.5.3. Interdependence
12.5.4. Limits
12.6. Effectiveness of Current Economic Policies
12.6.1. Philosophy Behind Current Actions
12.6.2. Are Current Actions Enough?
12.7. Yin and Yang Reprise
12.8. Implications for the Future
12.9. Concluding Remarks.

Financial whirlpools : a systems story of the great global recession /

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