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Intuitive predictions and professional forecasts : cognitive processes and social consequences /
This volume discusses new approaches for the integration of cognitive psychology and professional forecasting, conceptual clarification of intuition and its role in predictions and forecasts. The authors present empirical tests of the theoretical assumptions in the area of psychiatric prognosis, ele...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
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| Autor principal: | |
| Otros Autores: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Oxford [England] ; New York :
Pergamon Press,
1990.
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| Edición: | 1st ed. |
| Colección: | International series in experimental social psychology ;
v. 20. |
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Front Cover; Intuitive Predictions and Professional Forecasts: Cognitive Processes and Social Consequences; Copyright Page; Acknowledgements; Table of Contents; Chapter 1. Intuition, lay predictions, and professional forecasts; 1.1 The role of prediction in daily life; 1.2 Lay predictions and professional forecasts; 1.3 Intuition and prediction; 1.4 The intuitive core of professional forecasts. Or: Why do we need a social psychology of prediction?; Chapter 2. Social psychological theories of prediction
- 2.1 Early attempts: Prediction as an interaction of situational characteristics and individual factors2.2 The role of cognitive structures and processes in predicting: Tversky and Kahneman's heuristics concept; 2.3 Contributions of other modern judgement research; 2.4 Laboratory versus ""real world"" use of heuristics; Chapter 3. Expanding and testing modern concepts for prediction; 3.1 Part 1: Individual factors and prediction; 3.2 Part 2: From individual predictions to professional forecasts; Chapter 4. The relevance of psychological concepts to the problem of prediction
- 4.1 The credibility of predictions4.2 How to evaluate predictions; 4.3 Integrating theoretical concepts; References; Index