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Geopolitical Alpha An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
"The conventional view serves to protect us from the painful job of thinking. noted John Kenneth Galbraith. Of Constraints and Preferences focuses on how the world has changed over the past decade, why investment and corporate professionals are not equipped to deal with that change, and why the...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
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| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Newark :
John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated,
2020.
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo (Requiere registro previo con correo institucional) |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Cover
- Title Page
- Copyright
- Contents
- Foreword
- Introduction
- Part One Scaffolding
- Chapter 1: We're Not in Kansas Anymore
- Cut off from the Yellow Brick Road
- The End of the Goldilocks Era
- The Tornado Hits Kansas: Geopolitical Paradigm Shifts
- The Nail in the Coffin: COVID-19
- Welcome to Oz
- Beware of the Wizards
- Chapter 2: The Constraint Framework: Three Pillars
- Geopolitics Is Not a "Nice-to-have"
- The First Pillar: Materialist Dialectic
- Second Pillar: Diagnosticity of Constraints
- Diagnosticity in Practice
- Third Pillar: The Person versus the Situation
- Fundamental Attribution Error in Practice
- The Three Pillars of the Constraint Framework
- And Now for Some Math
- Where Do We Go from Here?
- Chapter 3: The Wizards of Oz
- Overview: Intelligence and Investing
- The False Expert
- The Connected Player
- The Funnel
- The Insider
- The Spy
- You Cannot Outsource Your Fiduciary Duty
- Part Two The Constraints
- Chapter 4: Politics
- "You May Have All the Money, Raymond ..."
- ... But Boris Has All the Rhetoric
- Introducing the Median Voter Theorem
- Predicting the Long-term: Welcome to the Buenos Aires Consensus!
- MVT in a Vote-less Nation: Does China Have a Median Voter?
- Political Constraints: Takeaway
- Chapter 5: The Economy and the Market
- Between a Rock and a Hard Place
- Fundamentals at Work: The German Question
- Greece After the Euro: The Land of Milk and Honey?
- Geopolitics versus Economics: Is Trade War Sustainable?
- Power Dynamics and Ancient Greece: A Theory Interlude
- Relative Gain: Why Trade Wars Fizzle in a Multipolar World
- The World Wars: Economic Constraints in a Multipolar World
- Economic and Market Constraints: Takeaway
- Chapter 6: Geopolitics
- Origins of Geopolitical Theory
- The Trump Doctrine
- Russia's Constraints Abroad
- Geopolitics: The Takeaway
- Chapter 7: Constitutional and Legal Constraints: The Constraint-Preference Hybrids
- Euro Area Crisis Averted
- Trump and Trade
- Reconciliation and the Markets
- The US Budget Process
- The Reconciliation Process
- Reconciliation and the 2017 Tax Reform: So What?
- How to Peddle a Budget-busting Tax Cut
- Constitutional and Legal Constraints: The Takeaway
- Chapter 8: The Time Constraint: When Preferences Run Down the Clock
- Material Constraints Versus Terrorism
- Material Constraints Versus COVID-19
- Non-linearity and COVID-19
- Gargantuan Stimulus: Nuthin' But a G Thang
- Time is the Achilles' Heel of the Constraint Method
- Part Three Operationalization
- Chapter 9: The Art of the Net Assessment
- Three Lenses of Geopolitical Forecasting
- Net Assessment: The Bayesian Prior
- India Net Assessment: An Investment Thesis Built on Mean Reversion
- What Is Keeping India from Mean Reverting?
- Underinvested: India's Fulcrum Constraint