International futures : building and using global models /

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International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system ar...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Hughes, Barry B., 1945- (Autor)
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: London, United Kingdom : Academic Press, an imprint of Elsevier, [2019]
Edición:First edition.
Temas:
Forecasting.
Policy sciences.
Forecasting > Mathematical models.
Forecasting > Data processing.
Forecasting
Prévision.
Sciences de la politique.
Prévision > Informatique.
SCIENCE > System Theory.
TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING > Operations Research.
Acceso en línea:Texto completo (Requiere registro previo con correo institucional)
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • Front Cover
  • International Futures: Building and Using Global Models
  • Copyright
  • Contents
  • Prologue
  • Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations
  • Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases
  • Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams
  • Chapter 1: Introduction
  • 1.1. What Path Are We On?
  • 1.2. What Leverage Do We Have?
  • 1.3. How Do We Address Uncertainty?
  • 1.4. The Plan of the Volume
  • References
  • Chapter 2: Building a Global Model: The Toolkit
  • 2.1. Identifying Concepts Individually and in Systems
  • 2.1.1. Identifying Concepts
  • 2.1.2. Recognizing Systems
  • 2.2. Assembling Data
  • 2.3. Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions
  • 2.4. Building Dynamic Formulations: Equations and Much More
  • 2.4.1. Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type
  • 2.4.2. Making Choices at the Systems Level
  • 2.4.2.1. Identifying Important Feedback Loops
  • 2.4.2.2. Building Algorithms
  • 2.4.3. Making Choices at the Equation Level
  • 2.4.3.1. Seeing That Formulations Do Not All Merit the Same Attention
  • 2.4.3.2. Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket
  • 2.4.3.3. Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers
  • 2.4.3.4. Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points
  • 2.5. Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty
  • 2.5.1. Building Alternative Scenarios
  • 2.5.2. Exploring Transformative Uncertainty
  • 2.6. Assessing and Addressing Model Strengths and Weaknesses
  • 2.6.1. Verification, Validation, and Accreditation
  • 2.6.2. Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission
  • References
  • Chapter 3: The Evolution of Global Modeling
  • 3.1. Early Global Modeling With Multiple-Issue, Long-Term Systems
  • 3.1.1. Foundational Work
  • 3.1.2. The First Wave
  • 3.1.3. New Capabilities
  • 3.2. Integrated Assessment Models
  • 3.2.1. Comparative Use of IAMs.
  • 3.2.2. Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures
  • 3.3. Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use
  • 3.3.1. Challenges in Model Building
  • 3.3.1.1. Coverage and Connections
  • 3.3.1.2. Transparency and Openness
  • 3.3.2. Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty
  • 3.3.2.1. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
  • 3.3.2.2. Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives
  • 3.4. Final Comments on Global Model Evolution and Challenges
  • References
  • Chapter 4: Introducing International Futures
  • 4.1. Structural Overview of IFs
  • 4.2. The User Interface of IFs
  • 4.2.1. Data Analysis
  • 4.2.2. Display of Results
  • 4.2.3. Creation of Scenarios
  • 4.3. Users and Uses of IFs
  • 4.4. Looking Ahead
  • References
  • Chapter 5: The Future of Human Development
  • 5.1. Population
  • 5.1.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
  • 5.1.2. Demographic Transitions
  • 5.1.3. Modeling Population, Especially Fertility
  • 5.1.4. Population in IFs
  • 5.1.4.1. Fertility Rate
  • 5.1.4.2. Mortality and Migration
  • 5.1.4.3. Other Important Demographic Variables
  • 5.1.4.4. Limitations
  • 5.1.5. Comparative Scenarios
  • 5.2. Health
  • 5.2.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
  • 5.2.2. Health Transitions
  • 5.2.3. Modeling Health, Especially Mortality
  • 5.2.4. Health in IFs
  • 5.2.4.1. A Hybrid Distal and Proximate Modeling Approach
  • 5.2.4.2. The Distal Foundation
  • 5.2.4.3. The Risk Assessment Overlay
  • 5.2.4.4. Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers
  • 5.2.4.5. Other Important Health Variables
  • 5.2.4.6. Limitations
  • 5.2.5. Comparative Scenarios
  • 5.3. Education
  • 5.3.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
  • 5.3.2. Education Transitions
  • 5.3.3. Modeling Education Progression
  • 5.3.4. Education in IFs
  • 5.3.4.1. Primary Intake
  • 5.3.4.2. Education Financing Reconciliation
  • 5.3.4.3. Other Important Education Variables.
  • 5.3.4.4. Limitations
  • 5.3.5. Comparative Scenarios
  • 5.4. Human Development in Summary
  • 5.5. Conclusion
  • References
  • Chapter 6: The Future of Socioeconomic Development
  • 6.1. Economics
  • 6.1.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
  • 6.1.1.1. Flow-Based Accounting
  • 6.1.1.2. Economic Growth Dynamics
  • 6.1.2. Economic Transitions
  • 6.1.3. Modeling Economics
  • 6.1.3.1. The Hybrid: Dynamic Equilibrium Models
  • 6.1.3.2. Enhancing the Treatment of Productivity
  • 6.1.4. Economics in IFs
  • 6.1.4.1. The IFs Approach to Productivity
  • Productivity Overview: Exogenous and Endogenous Elements
  • Endogenous Productivity Growth
  • An Example: Human Capital and Productivity
  • Other Endogenous Productivity Terms
  • Informality
  • Physical Energy Shortages
  • 6.1.4.2. Flows and Accounting
  • Domestic Flows and the Demand Side
  • External Accounts
  • 6.1.4.3. Equilibration Dynamics
  • 6.1.4.4. Income Distribution and Poverty
  • 6.1.4.5. Limitations
  • Around the SAM
  • The LES Approach for Consumer Demand
  • Parameterization of Terms Driving MFP Endogenously
  • Interaction Effects of Contributions to MFP
  • The Representation of Income Distribution
  • Labor and Financial Markets
  • 6.1.5. Comparative Scenarios
  • 6.2. Government Finance
  • 6.2.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
  • 6.2.2. Government Finance Transitions
  • 6.2.3. Modeling Government Finance
  • 6.2.4. Government Finance in IFs
  • 6.2.4.1. Government Consumption/Investment
  • 6.2.4.2. Sectoral Demand (GDS) Calculations
  • Military Sector
  • Health Sector
  • Education Sector
  • Core Infrastructure Sector
  • Other Infrastructure Sector
  • Research and Development (R&D)
  • Other Public Spending
  • Exogenous Override
  • 6.2.4.3. Reconciling Sector-Specific Demands With Expenditure Availability
  • 6.2.4.4. Other Government Finance
  • 6.2.4.5. Balancing Revenues and Expenditures.
  • 6.2.4.6. Limitations
  • 6.2.5. Comparative Scenarios
  • 6.3. Domestic Governance and the Sociopolitical System
  • 6.3.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
  • 6.3.2. Governance Transitions
  • 6.3.3. Modeling of Governance
  • 6.3.4. Governance in IFs
  • 6.3.4.1. Security and Internal War
  • 6.3.4.2. Other IFs Variables Related to the Three Dimensions
  • 6.3.4.3. A Deeper Look at Culture
  • 6.3.4.4. Limitations
  • 6.3.5. Comparative Scenarios
  • 6.4. International/Global Politics
  • 6.4.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
  • 6.4.2. International Political Transitions
  • 6.4.3. Modeling International Politics
  • 6.4.4. International Politics in IFs
  • 6.4.4.1. Threat of Overt Conflict: General Challenges and Formulation
  • 6.4.4.2. Threat of Conflict: Initial Prediction Term
  • 6.4.4.3. Threat of Conflict: Dynamic Power Term
  • 6.4.4.4. Threat of Conflict: Dynamic Non-Power Term
  • 6.4.4.5. Other Important Variables: Military Spending and Globalization
  • 6.4.4.6. Limitations
  • 6.4.5. Comparative Scenarios
  • 6.5. Conclusion
  • References
  • Further Reading
  • Chapter 7: The Future of Sustainable Development
  • 7.1. Agriculture and Food
  • 7.1.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
  • 7.1.2. Agriculture and Food Transitions
  • 7.1.3. Modeling Agriculture and Food
  • 7.1.4. Agriculture and Food in IFs
  • 7.1.4.1. Yield and Production
  • 7.1.4.2. Other Important Functions, Including Demand and Equilibration
  • 7.1.4.3. Relationship of Physical and Value Representations of Agriculture
  • 7.1.4.4. Limitations
  • 7.1.5. Comparative Scenarios
  • 7.2. Energy
  • 7.2.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
  • 7.2.2. Energy Transitions
  • 7.2.3. Modeling Energy
  • 7.2.4. Energy in IFs
  • 7.2.4.1. Resources and Production
  • 7.2.4.2. Other Important Energy Functions: Demand and Equilibration
  • 7.2.4.3. Limitations
  • 7.2.5. Comparative Scenarios
  • 7.3. Infrastructure.
  • 7.3.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
  • 7.3.2. Infrastructure Transitions
  • 7.3.3. Modeling Infrastructure
  • 7.3.4. Infrastructure in IFs
  • 7.3.4.1. Expected Access Rates
  • 7.3.4.2. Other Important Functions
  • 7.3.4.3. Limitations
  • 7.3.5. Comparative Scenarios
  • 7.4. Human Impacts on Biophysical Systems: An Introductory Note
  • 7.5. Climate Change
  • 7.5.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
  • 7.5.2. Atmospheric Carbon Transition
  • 7.5.3. Modeling Climate Change
  • 7.5.4. The Carbon Cycle and Global Warming in IFs
  • 7.5.5. Limitations
  • 7.5.6. Comparative Scenarios
  • 7.6. Water Systems
  • 7.6.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data
  • 7.6.2. Water Transitions
  • 7.6.3. Modeling Water Systems
  • 7.6.4. Water in IFs
  • 7.6.5. Limitations
  • 7.6.6. Comparative Scenarios
  • 7.7. Conclusion
  • References
  • Chapter 8: Feedbacks and Disruption: Sources of Uncertainty
  • 8.1. Biophysical System Linkages Back to Human Ones: The Impact of Change
  • 8.1.1. Uncertain Knowledge About Environmental Impacts
  • 8.1.2. Modeling Impacts From Environmental Change
  • 8.1.2.1. Challenges: Causal Representations (Especially of Extreme Events)
  • 8.1.2.2. Challenges: Temporal Considerations
  • 8.1.2.3. Enumerative Analysis: Illustrative Elements
  • 8.1.2.4. Enumerative Analysis: Putting the Pieces Together
  • 8.1.2.5. Aggregated Statistical Representation
  • 8.1.3. Modeling Environmental Impacts in IFs
  • 8.1.4. Limitations
  • 8.2. Technology
  • 8.2.1. Conceptualization and Treatment of Technology
  • 8.2.2. Technology in IFs
  • 8.2.3. Limitations
  • 8.3. Concluding Remarks
  • References
  • Chapter 9: Looking Ahead: Global Models and the IFs System
  • 9.1. Thinking About the Future: Uncertainties
  • 9.1.1. Foundations of Alternative World Views and Future Scenarios
  • 9.1.2. Elaboration of Alternative World Views and Future Scenarios.

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