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International futures : building and using global models /
International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system ar...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
London, United Kingdom :
Academic Press, an imprint of Elsevier,
[2019]
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| Edición: | First edition. |
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo (Requiere registro previo con correo institucional) |
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Hughes, Barry B., |d 1945- |e author. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a International futures : |b building and using global models / |c Barry B. Hughes. |
| 250 | |a First edition. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a London, United Kingdom : |b Academic Press, an imprint of Elsevier, |c [2019] | |
| 264 | 4 | |c ©2019 | |
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| 520 | |a International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years. | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a Front Cover -- International Futures: Building and Using Global Models -- Copyright -- Contents -- Prologue -- Glossary I: Model Acronyms and Abbreviations -- Glossary II: Modeling-Related Concepts, Tools, and Databases -- Glossary III: Organizations, Projects, and Teams -- Chapter 1: Introduction -- 1.1. What Path Are We On? -- 1.2. What Leverage Do We Have? -- 1.3. How Do We Address Uncertainty? -- 1.4. The Plan of the Volume -- References -- Chapter 2: Building a Global Model: The Toolkit -- 2.1. Identifying Concepts Individually and in Systems -- 2.1.1. Identifying Concepts -- 2.1.2. Recognizing Systems -- 2.2. Assembling Data -- 2.3. Understanding Past and Ongoing Global Transitions -- 2.4. Building Dynamic Formulations: Equations and Much More -- 2.4.1. Making Fundamental Choices Concerning Model Type -- 2.4.2. Making Choices at the Systems Level -- 2.4.2.1. Identifying Important Feedback Loops -- 2.4.2.2. Building Algorithms -- 2.4.3. Making Choices at the Equation Level -- 2.4.3.1. Seeing That Formulations Do Not All Merit the Same Attention -- 2.4.3.2. Using Statistical Fit as a Guide, Not a Straitjacket -- 2.4.3.3. Considering Both Distal and Proximate Drivers -- 2.4.3.4. Looking for and Understanding Leverage Points -- 2.5. Using the Model and Exploring Uncertainty -- 2.5.1. Building Alternative Scenarios -- 2.5.2. Exploring Transformative Uncertainty -- 2.6. Assessing and Addressing Model Strengths and Weaknesses -- 2.6.1. Verification, Validation, and Accreditation -- 2.6.2. Addressing Errors of Omission and Commission -- References -- Chapter 3: The Evolution of Global Modeling -- 3.1. Early Global Modeling With Multiple-Issue, Long-Term Systems -- 3.1.1. Foundational Work -- 3.1.2. The First Wave -- 3.1.3. New Capabilities -- 3.2. Integrated Assessment Models -- 3.2.1. Comparative Use of IAMs. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 3.2.2. Comparative Assessments of IAM Structures -- 3.3. Status of and Challenges for Global Model Building and Use -- 3.3.1. Challenges in Model Building -- 3.3.1.1. Coverage and Connections -- 3.3.1.2. Transparency and Openness -- 3.3.2. Challenges in Model Use: Dealing With Uncertainty -- 3.3.2.1. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) -- 3.3.2.2. Other Integrative Analytical Initiatives -- 3.4. Final Comments on Global Model Evolution and Challenges -- References -- Chapter 4: Introducing International Futures -- 4.1. Structural Overview of IFs -- 4.2. The User Interface of IFs -- 4.2.1. Data Analysis -- 4.2.2. Display of Results -- 4.2.3. Creation of Scenarios -- 4.3. Users and Uses of IFs -- 4.4. Looking Ahead -- References -- Chapter 5: The Future of Human Development -- 5.1. Population -- 5.1.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 5.1.2. Demographic Transitions -- 5.1.3. Modeling Population, Especially Fertility -- 5.1.4. Population in IFs -- 5.1.4.1. Fertility Rate -- 5.1.4.2. Mortality and Migration -- 5.1.4.3. Other Important Demographic Variables -- 5.1.4.4. Limitations -- 5.1.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 5.2. Health -- 5.2.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 5.2.2. Health Transitions -- 5.2.3. Modeling Health, Especially Mortality -- 5.2.4. Health in IFs -- 5.2.4.1. A Hybrid Distal and Proximate Modeling Approach -- 5.2.4.2. The Distal Foundation -- 5.2.4.3. The Risk Assessment Overlay -- 5.2.4.4. Combining the Distal and Proximate Risk Drivers -- 5.2.4.5. Other Important Health Variables -- 5.2.4.6. Limitations -- 5.2.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 5.3. Education -- 5.3.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 5.3.2. Education Transitions -- 5.3.3. Modeling Education Progression -- 5.3.4. Education in IFs -- 5.3.4.1. Primary Intake -- 5.3.4.2. Education Financing Reconciliation -- 5.3.4.3. Other Important Education Variables. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 5.3.4.4. Limitations -- 5.3.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 5.4. Human Development in Summary -- 5.5. Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 6: The Future of Socioeconomic Development -- 6.1. Economics -- 6.1.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 6.1.1.1. Flow-Based Accounting -- 6.1.1.2. Economic Growth Dynamics -- 6.1.2. Economic Transitions -- 6.1.3. Modeling Economics -- 6.1.3.1. The Hybrid: Dynamic Equilibrium Models -- 6.1.3.2. Enhancing the Treatment of Productivity -- 6.1.4. Economics in IFs -- 6.1.4.1. The IFs Approach to Productivity -- Productivity Overview: Exogenous and Endogenous Elements -- Endogenous Productivity Growth -- An Example: Human Capital and Productivity -- Other Endogenous Productivity Terms -- Informality -- Physical Energy Shortages -- 6.1.4.2. Flows and Accounting -- Domestic Flows and the Demand Side -- External Accounts -- 6.1.4.3. Equilibration Dynamics -- 6.1.4.4. Income Distribution and Poverty -- 6.1.4.5. Limitations -- Around the SAM -- The LES Approach for Consumer Demand -- Parameterization of Terms Driving MFP Endogenously -- Interaction Effects of Contributions to MFP -- The Representation of Income Distribution -- Labor and Financial Markets -- 6.1.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 6.2. Government Finance -- 6.2.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 6.2.2. Government Finance Transitions -- 6.2.3. Modeling Government Finance -- 6.2.4. Government Finance in IFs -- 6.2.4.1. Government Consumption/Investment -- 6.2.4.2. Sectoral Demand (GDS) Calculations -- Military Sector -- Health Sector -- Education Sector -- Core Infrastructure Sector -- Other Infrastructure Sector -- Research and Development (R&D) -- Other Public Spending -- Exogenous Override -- 6.2.4.3. Reconciling Sector-Specific Demands With Expenditure Availability -- 6.2.4.4. Other Government Finance -- 6.2.4.5. Balancing Revenues and Expenditures. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 6.2.4.6. Limitations -- 6.2.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 6.3. Domestic Governance and the Sociopolitical System -- 6.3.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 6.3.2. Governance Transitions -- 6.3.3. Modeling of Governance -- 6.3.4. Governance in IFs -- 6.3.4.1. Security and Internal War -- 6.3.4.2. Other IFs Variables Related to the Three Dimensions -- 6.3.4.3. A Deeper Look at Culture -- 6.3.4.4. Limitations -- 6.3.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 6.4. International/Global Politics -- 6.4.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 6.4.2. International Political Transitions -- 6.4.3. Modeling International Politics -- 6.4.4. International Politics in IFs -- 6.4.4.1. Threat of Overt Conflict: General Challenges and Formulation -- 6.4.4.2. Threat of Conflict: Initial Prediction Term -- 6.4.4.3. Threat of Conflict: Dynamic Power Term -- 6.4.4.4. Threat of Conflict: Dynamic Non-Power Term -- 6.4.4.5. Other Important Variables: Military Spending and Globalization -- 6.4.4.6. Limitations -- 6.4.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 6.5. Conclusion -- References -- Further Reading -- Chapter 7: The Future of Sustainable Development -- 7.1. Agriculture and Food -- 7.1.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 7.1.2. Agriculture and Food Transitions -- 7.1.3. Modeling Agriculture and Food -- 7.1.4. Agriculture and Food in IFs -- 7.1.4.1. Yield and Production -- 7.1.4.2. Other Important Functions, Including Demand and Equilibration -- 7.1.4.3. Relationship of Physical and Value Representations of Agriculture -- 7.1.4.4. Limitations -- 7.1.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 7.2. Energy -- 7.2.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 7.2.2. Energy Transitions -- 7.2.3. Modeling Energy -- 7.2.4. Energy in IFs -- 7.2.4.1. Resources and Production -- 7.2.4.2. Other Important Energy Functions: Demand and Equilibration -- 7.2.4.3. Limitations -- 7.2.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 7.3. Infrastructure. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 7.3.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 7.3.2. Infrastructure Transitions -- 7.3.3. Modeling Infrastructure -- 7.3.4. Infrastructure in IFs -- 7.3.4.1. Expected Access Rates -- 7.3.4.2. Other Important Functions -- 7.3.4.3. Limitations -- 7.3.5. Comparative Scenarios -- 7.4. Human Impacts on Biophysical Systems: An Introductory Note -- 7.5. Climate Change -- 7.5.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 7.5.2. Atmospheric Carbon Transition -- 7.5.3. Modeling Climate Change -- 7.5.4. The Carbon Cycle and Global Warming in IFs -- 7.5.5. Limitations -- 7.5.6. Comparative Scenarios -- 7.6. Water Systems -- 7.6.1. Concepts, Structures, and Data -- 7.6.2. Water Transitions -- 7.6.3. Modeling Water Systems -- 7.6.4. Water in IFs -- 7.6.5. Limitations -- 7.6.6. Comparative Scenarios -- 7.7. Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 8: Feedbacks and Disruption: Sources of Uncertainty -- 8.1. Biophysical System Linkages Back to Human Ones: The Impact of Change -- 8.1.1. Uncertain Knowledge About Environmental Impacts -- 8.1.2. Modeling Impacts From Environmental Change -- 8.1.2.1. Challenges: Causal Representations (Especially of Extreme Events) -- 8.1.2.2. Challenges: Temporal Considerations -- 8.1.2.3. Enumerative Analysis: Illustrative Elements -- 8.1.2.4. Enumerative Analysis: Putting the Pieces Together -- 8.1.2.5. Aggregated Statistical Representation -- 8.1.3. Modeling Environmental Impacts in IFs -- 8.1.4. Limitations -- 8.2. Technology -- 8.2.1. Conceptualization and Treatment of Technology -- 8.2.2. Technology in IFs -- 8.2.3. Limitations -- 8.3. Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 9: Looking Ahead: Global Models and the IFs System -- 9.1. Thinking About the Future: Uncertainties -- 9.1.1. Foundations of Alternative World Views and Future Scenarios -- 9.1.2. Elaboration of Alternative World Views and Future Scenarios. | |
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