Cargando…

Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts /

A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Harris, Maury
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Hoboken New Jersey : Wiley, [2015]
Temas:
Acceso en línea:Texto completo (Requiere registro previo con correo institucional)

MARC

LEADER 00000cam a2200000 i 4500
001 OR_ocn885378185
003 OCoLC
005 20231017213018.0
006 m o d
007 cr |||||||||||
008 140805s2015 nju ob 001 0 eng
010 |a  2014031390 
040 |a DLC  |b eng  |e rda  |e pn  |c DLC  |d N$T  |d TEFOD  |d E7B  |d OCLCF  |d UMI  |d NAM  |d YDXCP  |d UIU  |d EBLCP  |d DEBSZ  |d RECBK  |d OCLCQ  |d TEFOD  |d OCLCQ  |d COO  |d D6H  |d DG1  |d UPM  |d K6U  |d CNNOR  |d DG1  |d OCLCQ  |d CCO  |d PIFFA  |d FVL  |d ZCU  |d MERUC  |d OCLCQ  |d U3W  |d OCLCQ  |d GBVCP  |d OCLCO  |d STF  |d HCO  |d OCLCA  |d ICG  |d VT2  |d OCLCQ  |d G3B  |d TKN  |d OCLCQ  |d UAB  |d DKC  |d OCLCQ  |d UKAHL  |d C6I  |d OCLCQ  |d OCLCA  |d OCLCQ  |d TUHNV  |d OCLCO  |d OCLCQ  |d OCLCO 
019 |a 898421288  |a 899277656  |a 903257910  |a 929527548  |a 961599787  |a 962702316  |a 1100433362  |a 1124525069  |a 1148158781  |a 1244447792 
020 |a 9781118865101  |q (epub) 
020 |a 1118865103  |q (epub) 
020 |a 9781118865170  |q (pdf) 
020 |a 1118865170  |q (pdf) 
020 |a 9781119209584 
020 |a 1119209587 
020 |a 1118865073 
020 |a 9781118865071 
020 |z 9781118865071  |q (cloth) 
029 1 |a AU@  |b 000053643839 
029 1 |a AU@  |b 000061149267 
029 1 |a CHNEW  |b 000943406 
029 1 |a CHVBK  |b 480236291 
029 1 |a DEBBG  |b BV042513448 
029 1 |a DEBBG  |b BV043616088 
029 1 |a DEBSZ  |b 425936724 
029 1 |a DEBSZ  |b 48505101X 
029 1 |a GBVCP  |b 81306032X 
029 1 |a NZ1  |b 15878208 
035 |a (OCoLC)885378185  |z (OCoLC)898421288  |z (OCoLC)899277656  |z (OCoLC)903257910  |z (OCoLC)929527548  |z (OCoLC)961599787  |z (OCoLC)962702316  |z (OCoLC)1100433362  |z (OCoLC)1124525069  |z (OCoLC)1148158781  |z (OCoLC)1244447792 
037 |a 5E8E34A8-9B6B-47B2-99F9-541D01512C1B  |b OverDrive, Inc.  |n http://www.overdrive.com 
042 |a pcc 
050 0 0 |a HB3730 
072 7 |a BUS  |x 069000  |2 bisacsh 
072 7 |a BUS  |x 055000  |2 bisacsh 
082 0 0 |a 330.01/12  |2 23 
049 |a UAMI 
100 1 |a Harris, Maury. 
245 1 0 |a Inside the crystal ball :  |b how to make and use forecasts /  |c Maury Harris. 
264 1 |a Hoboken New Jersey :  |b Wiley,  |c [2015] 
300 |a 1 online resource 
336 |a text  |b txt  |2 rdacontent 
337 |a computer  |b c  |2 rdamedia 
338 |a online resource  |b cr  |2 rdacarrier 
500 |a Includes index. 
588 0 |a Print version record and CIP data provided by publisher. 
504 |a Includes bibliographical references and index. 
505 0 |a Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Contents; Acknowledgments; Introduction: What You Need to Know about Forecasting; Chapter 1 What Makes a Successful Forecaster?; Grading Forecasters: How Many Pass?; Why It's So Difficult to Be Prescient; Bad Forecasters: One-Hit Wonders, Perennial Outliers, and Copycats; What Is "Success" in Forecasting?; One-Hit Wonders; Who Is More Likely to Go Out on a Limb?; Consensus Copycats; Success Factors: Why Some Forecasters Excel; Does Experience Make Much of a Difference in Forecasting?; Chapter 2 The Art and Science of Making and Using Forecasts. 
505 8 |a Judgment Counts More Than MathHabits of Successful Forecasters: How to Cultivate Them; Judging and Scoring Forecasts by Statistics; Chapter 3 What Can We Learn from History?; It's Never Normal; What Does U.S. Economic History Teach about the Future?; Some Key Characteristics of Business Cycles; National versus State Business Cycles: Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats?; U.S. Monetary Policy and the Great Depression; The Ghost of the Great Depression Has Returned to Haunt Business Forecasters; The Great Inflation Is Hard to Forget; The Great Moderation: Why It's Still Relevant. 
505 8 |a Why Was There Reduced Growth Volatility during the Great Moderation?Chapter 4 When Forecasters Get It Wrong; The Granddaddy of Forecasting Debacles: The Great Depression; The Great Recession: Grandchild of the Granddaddy; The Great Recession: Lessons Learned; The Productivity Miracle and the ""New Economy''; Productivity: Lessons Learned; Y2K: The Disaster That Wasn't; The Tech Crash Was Not Okay; Forecasters at Cyclical Turning Points: How to Evaluate Them; Forecasting Recessions; Realizing You Are in a Recession; Forecasting Recessions: Lessons Learned. 
505 8 |a Chapter 5 Can We Believe What Washington, D.C. Tells Us?Does the U.S. Government ""Cook the Books'' on Economic Data Reports?; To What Extent Are Government Forecasts Politically Motivated?; Can You Trust the Government's Analyses of Its Policies' Benefits?; The Beltway's Multiplier Mania; Could the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Create or Save over 5 Million Jobs?; Multiplier Effects: How Real Are They?; Why Are Some Assumed Output and Jobs Multipliers Larger Than Others?; Why Government Statistics Keep ""Changing Their Mind''; Living with Revisions. 
505 8 |a Chapter 6 Four Gurus of Economics: Whom to Follow?Four Competing Schools of Economic Thought; Minskyites: Should We Keep Listening to Them?; Who Was Hyman Minsky?; What Distinguished Minsky's Theories?; Why Were Minskyites Largely Ignored for So Long?; What Are Minskyites Telling Post-Great Recession Forecasters to Do Differently?; What Should Forecasters Learn from Minskyites?; Monetarists: Do They Deserve More Respect?; A Quick Review of How the Money Supply Influences the Economy; Criticisms of Monetarism; Supply-Siders: Still a Role to Play?; Some Studies on Supply-Side Economics. 
520 |a A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The book:Provides insights from Maury Harris, named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance. Demonstrates ""best practices"" in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts. Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their pro 
590 |a O'Reilly  |b O'Reilly Online Learning: Academic/Public Library Edition 
650 0 |a Economic forecasting. 
650 0 |a Business cycles. 
650 0 |a Forecasting. 
650 6 |a Prévision économique. 
650 6 |a Cycles économiques. 
650 6 |a Prévision. 
650 7 |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS  |x Economics  |x General.  |2 bisacsh 
650 7 |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS  |x Reference.  |2 bisacsh 
650 7 |a Business cycles  |2 fast 
650 7 |a Economic forecasting  |2 fast 
650 7 |a Forecasting  |2 fast 
650 7 |a Wirtschaft  |2 gnd 
650 7 |a Prognose  |2 gnd 
776 0 8 |i Print version:  |a Harris, Maury.  |t Inside the crystal ball.  |d Hoboken New Jersey : John Wiley and Sons, Inc., [2015]  |z 9781118865071  |w (DLC) 2014027847 
856 4 0 |u https://learning.oreilly.com/library/view/~/9781118865101/?ar  |z Texto completo (Requiere registro previo con correo institucional) 
938 |a Askews and Holts Library Services  |b ASKH  |n AH27110309 
938 |a ProQuest Ebook Central  |b EBLB  |n EBL1896286 
938 |a ebrary  |b EBRY  |n ebr11000353 
938 |a EBSCOhost  |b EBSC  |n 927823 
938 |a Recorded Books, LLC  |b RECE  |n rbeEB00595750 
938 |a YBP Library Services  |b YANK  |n 12542229 
938 |a YBP Library Services  |b YANK  |n 12677574 
938 |a YBP Library Services  |b YANK  |n 12217501 
994 |a 92  |b IZTAP