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Uncertainty in risk assessment : the representation and treatment of uncertainties by probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods /
"There are a growing number of researchers and analysts who find the probability-based approaches for assessing risk and uncertainties to be too narrow and limiting. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment provides a broad conceptual framework and describes various alternative approaches of uncertainty...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
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| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Chichester, West Sussex, UK :
Wiley,
2014.
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo (Requiere registro previo con correo institucional) |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: The Representation and Treatment of Uncertainties by Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Methods; Contents; Preface; Part I: Introduction; 1 Introduction; 1.1 Risk; 1.1.1 The concept of risk; 1.1.2 Describing/measuring risk; 1.1.3 Examples; 1.2 Probabilistic risk assessment; 1.3 Use of risk assessment: The risk management and decision-making context; 1.4 Treatment of uncertainties in risk assessments; 1.5 Challenges: Discussion; 1.5.1 Examples; 1.5.2 Alternatives to the probability-based approaches to risk and uncertainty assessment; 1.5.3 The way ahead.
- 4.2.1 Building possibility distributions from nested probability intervals4.2.2 Justification for using the triangular possibility distribution; 4.2.3 Building possibility distributions using Chebyshev's inequality; 5 Evidence theory for treating uncertainty; 6 Methods of uncertainty propagation; 6.1 Level 1 uncertainty propagation setting; 6.1.1 Level 1 purely probabilistic framework; 6.1.2 Level 1 purely possibilistic framework; 6.1.3 Level 1 hybrid probabilistic-possibilistic framework; 6.2 Level 2 uncertainty propagation setting; 6.2.1 Level 2 purely probabilistic framework.
- 6.2.2 Level 2 hybrid probabilistic-evidence theory framework7 Discussion; 7.1 Probabilistic analysis; 7.2 Lower and upper probabilities; 7.3 Non-probabilistic representations with interpretations other than lower and upper probabilities; 7.4 Hybrid representations of uncertainty; 7.5 Semi-quantitative approaches; References
- Part II; Part III: Practical Applications; 8 Uncertainty representation and propagation in structural reliability analysis; 8.1 Structural reliability analysis; 8.1.1 A model of crack propagation under cyclic fatigue; 8.2 Case study; 8.3 Uncertainty representation.
- 8.4 Uncertainty propagation8.5 Results; 8.6 Comparison to a purely probabilistic method; 9 Uncertainty representation and propagation in maintenance performance assessment; 9.1 Maintenance performance assessment; 9.2 Case study; 9.3 Uncertainty representation; 9.4 Uncertainty propagation; 9.4.1 Maintenance performance assessment in the case of no epistemic uncertainty on the parameters; 9.4.2 Application of the hybrid probabilistic-theory of evidence uncertainty propagation method; 9.5 Results; 10 Uncertainty representation and propagation in event tree analysis; 10.1 Event tree analysis.