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Forecasting : an essential introduction /
Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive--this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting.
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autores principales: | , , |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
New Haven ; London :
Yale University Press,
[2019]
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Castle, Jennifer, |d 1979- |e author. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Forecasting : |b an essential introduction / |c Jennifer L. Castle, Michael P. Clements, David F. Hendry. |
| 264 | 1 | |a New Haven ; |a London : |b Yale University Press, |c [2019] | |
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (xiv, 213 pages) : |b illustrations | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index. | ||
| 588 | 0 | |a Online resource; title from PDF title page (EBSCO, viewed April 11, 2019). | |
| 520 | |a Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive--this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting. | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a Preface; Acknowledgments; Chapter 1. Why do we need forecasts?; What is a forecast?; Why do we need forecasts?; A brief history of forecasting; Why are forecasts uncertain?; A motoring analogy; Beware false forecasting; Time, models and the future; The road ahead-literally; Chapter 2. How do we make forecasts?; A galaxy of terms, and ways, for 'seeing into the future'; Making forecasts; Forecasting her journey time; Forecasting in 'normal' times; More uncertainty; Illustrating forecast uncertainty; Adapting to forecast failure; Updating forecasts as time goes by; Sources of information; Chapter 3. Where are we before we forecast? | |
| 505 | 8 | |a The motorist and the economist; Why are data subject to revision? And why might it matter?; Forecasting data revisions; Inaccurate data do matter; Chapter 4. How do we judge forecasts?; Forecasts are made to inform decisions; Standard forecast evaluation criteria; Everyone wins!; Unequal costs of positive and negative forecast errors; Chapter 5. How uncertain are our forecasts?; Modeling and forecasting uncertainty; Interval forecasts; 'Density' forecasts; Evaluating 'density' forecasts; Chapter 6. Are some real world events unpredictable?; Sudden unanticipated shifts: When the ground moves; Flocks of 'black swans'; Trends and their ilk | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Why does the type of trend matter?; Trends can cancel; Location shifts can also cancel; Chapter 7. Why do systematic forecast failures occur?; Some impressive forecast failures; Missing systematically; We don't always fail!; What changes matter most for forecast failure?; Learning from past mistakes; What do forecast failures entail?; Chapter 8. Can we avoid systematic forecast failures?; The bus-stop game; Risks and benefits of 'causal' models; Adaptation as forecasts go wrong; Why does differencing work?; Robustification can help; Chapter 9. How do we automatically detect breaks?; Finding shifts by indicator saturation | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Chapter 10. Can we forecast breaks before they hit?; What would we need to know?; Forecasting the Great Recession; The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami; Two information sets; Chapter 11. Can we improve forecasts during breaks?; Illustrating forecasting during a break; A possible role for non-linear models; Missing breaks, but adapting quickly; Switching between several 'regimes'; The costs of mis-forecasting hurricanes; Forecasting climate after a volcanic eruption; Chapter 12. Would more information be useful?; Pooling information; Are simple models best?; Pooling forecasts; ; Using other information; Should we use big or small forecasting models? | |
| 505 | 8 | |a If only we could forecast shifts!; Chapter 13. Can econometrics improve forecasting?; Models versus extrapolation (or rules-of-thumb); All models are not born equal; Are 'good' forecasting models useful for policy?; From forecasting to forediction; Federal Open Market Committee members' assessments; Chapter 14. Can you trust economic forecasts?; Is economic forecasting an oxymoron?; In need of better communication; Can you believe forecasts from 'experts'?; Chapter 15. Further reading; Subject index. | |
| 590 | |a JSTOR |b Books at JSTOR Evidence Based Acquisitions | ||
| 590 | |a JSTOR |b Books at JSTOR All Purchased | ||
| 590 | |a JSTOR |b Books at JSTOR Demand Driven Acquisitions (DDA) | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Economic forecasting. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Prévision économique. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS |x Economics |x General. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS |x Reference. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS |x Forecasting. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Economic forecasting |2 fast | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Clements, Michael P., |e author. | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hendry, David F., |e author. | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Castle, Jennifer, 1979- |t Forecasting. |d New Haven [Connecticut] : Yale University Press, [2019] |z 0300244665 |w (DLC) 2019934600 |w (OCoLC)1055260945 |
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