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Are U.S. military interventions contagious over time? : intervention timing and its implication for force planning /
Current DoD force planning processes assume that U.S. military interventions are serially independent over time. This report challenges this assumption, arguing that interventions occur in temporally dependent clusters in which the likelihood of an intervention depends on interventions in the recent...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Santa Monica, CA :
RAND,
[2013]
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Preface
- Figures
- Tables
- Summary
- Intervention timing and temporal dependence
- Testing for temporal dependence
- Results
- Implications for force planning
- Acknowledgements
- Abbreviations
- Introduction
- Defining temporal dependence: a review of existing evidence
- What is temporal dependence?
- What does the literature say about intervention timing and temporal dependence?
- Interventions and timing
- Predictors of political instability
- Temporal dependence in financial markets
- Summary
- Testing for temporal interdependence
- Testing for temporal dependence
- Data and operationalization
- Interventions
- Political conflict
- Results
- What drives armed conflict?
- Testing for robustness: linear and ARIMA specifications
- Summary
- Is there temporal dependence between military deployments?
- Testing for robustness: linear and ARIMA specifications
- Summary
- Implications for force planning
- Will temporal dependence affect force requirements?
- Mechanisms of temporal dependence
- How can temporal dependence be integrated into the planning process?
- Assessing the relevance of temporal clustering
- Building temporal dependence into force planning
- Preventing clustered conflicts
- Conclusion and next steps.