Cargando…
A non-random walk down Wall Street /
For over half a century, financial experts have regarded the movements of markets as a random walk--unpredictable meanderings akin to a drunkard's unsteady gait--and this hypothesis has become a cornerstone of modern financial economics and many investment strategies. Here Andrew W. Lo and A. C...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autores principales: | , |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Princeton :
Princeton University Press,
2002.
|
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Cover; Title Page; Copyright Page; Table of Contents; List of Figures; List of Tables; Preface; 1 Introduction; 1.1 The Random Walk and Efficient Markets; 1.2 The Current State of Efficient Markets; 1.3 Practical Implications; Part I; 2. Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test; 2.1 The Specification Test; 2.1.1 Homoskedastic Increments; 2.1.2 Heteroskedastic Increments; 2.2 The Random Walk Hypothesis for Weekly Returns; 2.2.1 Results for Market Indexes; 2.2.2 Results for SizeBased Portfolios; 2.2.3 Results for Individual Securities.
- 2.3 Spurious Autocorrelation Induced by Nontrading2.4 The Mean-Reverting Alternative to the Random Walk; 2.5 Conclusion; Appendix A2: Proof of Theorems; 3. The Size and Power of the Variance Ratio Test in Finite Samples: A Monte Carlo Investigation; 3.1 Introduction; 3.2 The Variance Ratio Test; 3.2.1 The IID Gaussian Null Hypothesis; 3.2.2 The Heteroskedastic Null Hypothesis; 3.2.3 Variance Ratios and Autocorrelations; 3.3 Properties of the Test Statistic under the Null Hypotheses; 3.3.1 The Gaussian IID Null Hypothesis; 3.3.2 A Heteroskedastic Null Hypothesis; 3.4 Power.
- 3.4.1 The Variance Ratio Test for Large q3.4.2 Power against a Stationary AR(1) Alternative; 3.4.3 Two Unit Root Alternatives to the Random Walk; 3.5 Conclusion; 4. An Econometric Analysis of Nonsynchronous Trading; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 A Model of Nonsynchronous Trading; 4.2.1 Implications for Individual Returns; 4.2.2 Implications for Portfolio Returns; 4.3 Time Aggregation; 4.4 An Empirical Analysis of Nontradin; 4.4.1 Daily Nontrading Probabilities Implicit in Autocorrelations; 4.4.2 Nontrading and Index Autocorrelations; 4.5 Extensions and Generalizations.
- Appendix A4: Proof of Propositions5. When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?; 5.1 Introduction; 5.2 A Summary of Recent Findings; 5.3 Analysis of Contrarian Profitability; 5.3.1 The Independently and Identically Distributed Benchmark; 5.3.2 Stock Market Overreaction and Fads; 5.3.3 Trading on White Noise and Lead-Lag Relations; 5.3.4 Lead-Lag Effects and Nonsynchronous Trading; 5.3.5 A Positively Dependent Common Factor and the Bid-Askspread; 5.4 An Empirical Appraisal of Overreaction; 5.5 Long Horizons Versus Short Horizons; 5.6 Conclusion; Appendix A5.
- 6. Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices6.1 Introduction; 6.2 Long-Rangeversus Short-Range Dependence; 6.2.1 The Null Hypothesis; 6.2.2 Long-Range Dependent Alternatives; 6.3 The Rescaled Range Statistic; 6.3.1 The Modified R/S Statistic; 6.3.2 The Asymptotic Distribution of Qn; 6.3.3 The Relation Between Qn and Qn; 6.3.4 The Behavior of Qn, Under Long Memory Alternatives; 6.4 R/S Analysis for Stock Market Returns; 6.4.1 The Evidence for Weekly and Monthly Returns; 6.5 Size and Power; 6.5.1 The Size of the R/S Test; 6.5.2 Power Against Fractionally-Differenced Alternatives; 6.6 Conclusion.