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This time is different : eight centuries of financial folly /
An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Otros Autores: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Princeton :
Princeton University Press,
©2009.
|
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- List of tables
- List of figures
- List of boxes
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Preamble : some initial intuitions on financial fragility and the fickle nature of confidence
- pt. I. Financial crises : an operational primer
- 1. Varieties of crises and their dates
- Crises defined by quantitative thresholds : inflation, currency crashes, and debasement
- Crises defined by events : banking crises and external and domestic default
- Other key concepts
- 2. Debt intolerance : the genesis of serial default
- Debt thresholds
- Measuring vulnerability
- Clubs and regions
- Reflections on debt intolerance
- 3. A global database on financial crises with a long-term view
- Prices, exchange rates, currency debasement, and real GDP
- Government finances and national accounts
- Public debt and its composition
- Global variables
- Country coverage
- pt. II. Sovereign external debt crises
- 4. A digression on the theoretical underpinnings of debt crises
- Sovereign lending
- Illiquidity versus insolvency
- Partial default and rescheduling
- Odious debt
- Domestic public debt
- Conclusions
- 5. Cycles of sovereign default on external debt
- Recurring patterns
- Default and banking crises
- Default and inflation
- Global factors and cycles of global external default
- The duration of default episodes
- 6. External default through history
- The early history of serial default : emerging Europe, 1300--1799
- Capital inflows and default : an "old world" story
- External sovereign default after 1800 : a global picture.
- pt. III. The forgotten history of domestic debt and default
- 7. The stylized facts of domestic debt and default
- Domestic and external debt
- Maturity, rates of return, and currency composition
- Episodes of domestic default
- Some caveats regarding domestic debt
- 8. Domestic debt : the missing link explaining external default and high inflation
- Understanding the debt intolerance puzzle
- Domestic debt on the eve and in the aftermath of external default
- The literature on inflation and the "inflation tax"
- Defining the tax base : domestic debt or the monetary base?
- The "temptation to inflate" revisited
- 9. Domestic and external default : which is worse? Who is senior?
- Real GDP in the run-up to and the aftermath of debt defaults
- Inflation in the run-up to and the aftermath of debt defaults
- The incidence of default on debts owed to external and domestic creditors
- Summary and discussion of selected issues
- pt. IV. Banking crises, inflation, and currency crashes
- 10. Banking crises
- A preamble on the theory of banking crises
- Banking crises : an equal-opportunity menace
- Banking crises, capital mobility, and financial liberalization
- Capital flow bonanzas, credit cycles, and asset prices
- Overcapacity bubbles in the financial industry?
- The fiscal legacy of financial crises revisited
- Living with the wreckage : some observations
- 11. Default through debasement : an "old world favorite"
- 12. Inflation and modern currency crashes
- An early history of inflation crises
- Modern inflation crises : regional comparisons
- Currency crashes
- The aftermath of high inflation and currency collapses
- Undoing domestic dollarization.
- pt. V. The U.S. subprime meltdown and the second great contraction
- 13. The U.S. subprime crisis : an international and historical comparison
- A global historical view of the subprime crisis and its aftermath
- The this-time-is-different syndrome and the run-up to the subprime crisis
- Risks posed by sustained U.S. borrowing from the rest of the world : the debate before the crisis
- The episodes of postwar bank-centered financial crisis
- A comparison of the subprime crisis with past crises in advanced economies
- Summary
- 14. The aftermath of financial crises
- Historical episodes revisited
- The downturn after a crisis : depth and duration
- The fiscal legacy of crises
- Sovereign risk
- Comparisons with experiences from the first great contraction in the 1930s
- Concluding remarks
- 15. The international dimensions of the subprime crisis : the results of contagion or common fundamentals?
- Concepts of contagion
- Selected earlier episodes
- Common fundamentals and the second great contraction
- Are more spillovers under way?
- 16. Composite measures of financial turmoil
- Developing a composite index of crises : the BCDI index
- Defining a global financial crisis
- The sequencing of crises : a prototype
- Summary
- pt. VI. What have we learned?
- 17. Reflections on early warnings, graduation, policy responses, and the foibles of human nature
- On early warnings of crises
- The role of international institutions
- Graduation
- Some observations on policy responses
- The latest version of the this-time-is-different syndrome
- Data appendixes
- A.1. Macroeconomic time series
- A.2. Public debt
- A.3. Dates of banking crises
- A.4. Historical summaries of banking crises
- Notes
- References
- Name index
- Subject index.