Shaping the next one hundred years : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography /

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The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., "Man will never fly"--Has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a qua...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Lempert, Robert J.
Otros Autores: Popper, Steven W., 1953-, Bankes, Steven C.
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2003.
Temas:
System analysis.
Decision making.
Information technology.
Systems Analysis
Decision Making
Analyse de systèmes.
Prise de décision.
Technologie de l'information.
systems analysis.
decision making.
information technology.
POLITICAL SCIENCE > Public Policy > General.
TRANSPORTATION > General.
Decision making
Information technology
System analysis
Samfundsvidenskab > Politologi.
Acceso en línea:Texto completo
Descripción
Sumario:The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., "Man will never fly"--Has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decis.
Notas:"MR-1626."
Descripción Física:1 online resource (xxi, 187 pages)
Bibliografía:Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN:0833034855
9780833034854
1282451413
9781282451414

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