Bias in science and communication : a field guide /

Bias is a natural outcome of our thinking patterns. The nature of our cognitive processes leads to inherent limitations, resulting in predictable biases in both our own judgements and the interpretation of our communications by the public, by policymakers and even other scientists. This book will in...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Welsh, Matthew Brian (Autor)
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Bristol [England] (Temple Circus, Temple Way, Bristol BS1 6HG, UK) : IOP Publishing, [2018]
Colección:IOP (Series). Release 5.
IOP expanding physics.
Temas:
Science > Social aspects.
Science > Philosophy.
Communication in science > Social aspects.
Objectivity.
Science - general issues.
SCIENCE / General.
Acceso en línea:Texto completo
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • part I. Introduction. 1. Pop quiz : a battery of decision-making questions for selfassessment and reflection
  • 1.1. Exam conditions
  • 1.2. Quiz
  • 2. Anchors aweigh : an introduction to the book, decision making and decision biases
  • 2.1. A brief history of decision making
  • 2.2. Bounded rationality
  • 2.3. Conclusion
  • 3. On message : reasons for and types of communication
  • 3.1. Scientific communication
  • 3.2. Personal communication
  • 3.3. Policy communication
  • 3.4. Group communications and decisions
  • 3.5. Elicitation of uncertainty
  • 3.6. Conclusion
  • part II. Biases in judgement and decision making. 4. Improbable interpretations : misunderstanding statistics and probability
  • 4.1. Risk, variability and uncertainty
  • 4.2. Subjective probability
  • 4.3. Bias in intuitive probability theory
  • 4.4. Conclusions
  • 5. Truth seeking? Biases in search strategies
  • 5.1. Bounded rationality in search
  • 5.2. Recognising recognition
  • 5.3. Search strategies
  • 5.4. Conclusions
  • 6. Same but different : unexpected effects of format changes
  • 6.1. Percentages and frequencies
  • 6.2. Nudges, defaults and frames
  • 6.3. Decisions under framing
  • 6.4. First, last and best
  • 6.5. Conclusions
  • 7. I'm confident, you're biased : accuracy and calibration of predictions
  • 7.1. Confidence : good or bad?
  • 7.2. Under and over
  • 7.3. Implications of overconfidence
  • 7.4. Reducing overconfidence
  • 7.5. Conclusions
  • 8. Sub-total recall : nature of memory processes, their limitations and resultant biases
  • 8.1. Remember this
  • 8.2. Available memories
  • 8.3. More or less?
  • 8.4. Heard it all before?
  • 8.5. Conclusions
  • 9. Angels and demons : biases from categorisation and fluency
  • 9.1. Heights of success
  • 9.2. In and out
  • 9.3. Easy to believe
  • 9.4. Conclusions
  • 10. Us and them : scientists versus lay-people and individual differences in decision bias
  • 10.1. Experts and novices
  • 10.2. Individual differences
  • 10.3. Implications for scientists
  • 10.4. Conclusions
  • part III. Implications and solutions. 11. Warp and weft : publication bias example to weave it all together
  • 11.1. Biased science
  • 11.2. Judging peer judgement
  • 11.3. Debiasing science
  • 11.4. Conclusions
  • 12. Felicitous elicitation : reducing biases through better elicitation processes
  • 12.1. My biases
  • 12.2. Your biases
  • 12.3. Conclusions
  • 13. A river in Egypt : denial, scepticism and debunking false beliefs
  • 13.1. Facts, factoids and fictions
  • 13.2. Boosting believability
  • 13.3. Fool me once, fool me forever?
  • 13.4. Debunking
  • 13.5. Conclusions
  • part IV. Conclusions. 14. The field guide : general conclusion and spotters guide to biases
  • 14.1. Spotter's guide to bias
  • 14.2. Epilogue.

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