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[Avoiding] coping with surprise in great power conflicts /
Surprise has always been an element of warfare, but the return of great power competition-- and the high-level threat that it poses--gives urgency to thinking about surprise now. Because the future is highly uncertain, and great powers have not fought each other for over 70 years, surprise is highly...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Washington, DC :
Center for Strategic & International Studies,
2018.
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Cancian, Mark F., |e author. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a [Avoiding] coping with surprise in great power conflicts / |c Mark F. Cancian. |
| 246 | 3 | |a Coping with surprise in great power conflicts | |
| 264 | 1 | |a Washington, DC : |b Center for Strategic & International Studies, |c 2018. | |
| 264 | 4 | |c ©2018 | |
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (XVII, 132 pages) | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 347 | |a text file | ||
| 347 | |b PDF | ||
| 500 | |a "A report of the CSIS International Security Program." | ||
| 500 | |a "February 2018." | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references. | ||
| 520 | |a Surprise has always been an element of warfare, but the return of great power competition-- and the high-level threat that it poses--gives urgency to thinking about surprise now. Because the future is highly uncertain, and great powers have not fought each other for over 70 years, surprise is highly likely in a future great power conflict. This study, therefore, examines potential surprises in a great power conflict, particularly in a conflict's initial stages when the interaction of adversaries' technologies, prewar plans, and military doctrines first becomes manifest. It is not an attempt to project the future. Rather, it seeks to do the opposite: explore the range of possible future conflicts to see where surprises might lurk. | ||
| 588 | 0 | |a Online resource; title from PDF title page (CSIS, viewed March 14, 2018). | |
| 505 | 0 | |a Coping With Surprise In Great Power Conflicts; Contents; Acknowledgments; Executive summary; Why think about surprise now?; What is surprise?; Some surprise is inevitable; It's more than surprise attack; So, what to do?; Chapter 1: Why Think about Surprise Now?; Return of great power competition: Back to the future; The long peace; Changes in warfighting; Hubris; Chapter 2: Approaching the Problem; What is "surprise"?; Why surprise matters; Coping with surprise now; Great power conflicts, conventional conflicts, and first battles; Using vignettes; Helping policymakers. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Types of surprise: strategic, technological, doctrinal, diplomatic/politicalNot a net assessment; Chapter 3: The Inevitability of Surprise; The debate about surprise; Why surprise is inevitable; The Inherent difficulty of predicting the future; Human weakness; Vulnerability of status quo powers; Known and unknown; Chapter 4: Strategic Surprise; Shock produces a rich literature but uncertain progress; Areas of current vulnerability; Chapter 5: Technological Surprise; Surprise from an adversary's technology; Surprise from failure in our own technology: "a stab in the back." | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Areas of current vulnerabilityChapter 6: Doctrinal Surprise; Many paths to doctrinal surprise; When our own doctrine fails: best laid plans that go astray; Areas of current vulnerability; Chapter 7: Political/Diplomatic Surprise; Diplomacy-Beware the realists; Politics; Areas of current vulnerability; Chapter 8: What to Do? Preparing for and Managing Surprise; General principles; Anticipation; Resilience; Adaptation; Appendix: Vignettes; Strategic Surprise; Vignette #1: Russian Blitz in the Baltics; Vignette #2: China Invades Taiwan; Vignette #3: China Attacks Vietnam; Technological Surprise. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Vignette #4: "Assassin's Mace"-Asymmetric Cyber AttackVignette #5: Biological Enhancements to Special Operations Soldiers; Vignette #6: U.S. Military Satellites Neutralized; Vignette #7: Pearl Harbor 2.0-Drone Style; Vignette #8: NATO Submarines Located and Attacked through Nonacoustic Submarine Sensors; Vignette #9: Stealth Strike Fails-Schweinfurt-Regensburg for the Twenty-first Century; Vignette #10: A Technological Stab in the Back-Bad Chips in Air-to-air Missiles; Doctrinal Surprise; Vignette #11: Cruise Missile Strike on the U.S. Homeland; Vignette #12: Decapitation of U.S. Leadership. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Vignette #13: Espionage Enables Attacks on U.S. Military SealiftVignette #14: Hybrid Attack on NATO; Diplomatic/Political Surprise; Vignette #15: U.S. Alliances in East Asia Collapse; Vignette #16: Panama Declares Neutrality in U.S.-China Conflict; Vignette #17: Cuban Missile Crisis-Round 2; Vignette #18: Senior U.S. Military Commanders Arrested for Alleged War Crimes; About the Author. | |
| 506 | 1 | |a Legal Deposit; |c Only available on premises controlled by the deposit library and to one user at any one time; |e The Legal Deposit Libraries (Non-Print Works) Regulations (UK). |5 WlAbNL | |
| 540 | |a Restricted: Printing from this resource is governed by The Legal Deposit Libraries (Non-Print Works) Regulations (UK) and UK copyright law currently in force. |5 WlAbNL | ||
| 590 | |a eBooks on EBSCOhost |b EBSCO eBook Subscription Academic Collection - Worldwide | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Military art and science. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Surprise (Military science) | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Deception (Military science) | |
| 650 | 0 | |a International relations. | |
| 650 | 2 | |a Military Science | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Art et science militaires. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Surprise (Science militaire) | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Déception (Science militaire) | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Relations internationales. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a international relations. |2 aat | |
| 650 | 7 | |a HISTORY |x Military |x Other. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING |x Military Science. |2 bisacsh | |
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| 650 | 7 | |a International relations. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst00977053 | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Military art and science. |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst01020874 | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Surprise (Military science) |2 fast |0 (OCoLC)fst01139533 | |
| 710 | 2 | |a Center for Strategic and International Studies (Washington, D.C.), |e publisher. | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Print version: |a Cancian, Mark F. |t [Avoiding] coping with surprise in great power conflicts. |d Washington, DC : Center for Strategic & International Studies, 2018 |z 1442280719 |z 9781442280717 |w (OCoLC)1030483267 |
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