Public debt dynamics : the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks /

The author studies how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment,...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Cherif, Reda
Autor Corporativo: International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
Otros Autores: Hasanov, Fuad, 1978-
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012.
Colección:IMF working paper ; WP/12/230.
Temas:
Debts, Public > United States > Econometric models.
Fiscal policy > United States > Econometric models.
Inflation (Finance)
Inflation, Economic
Dettes publiques > États-Unis > Modèles économétriques.
Politique fiscale > États-Unis > Modèles économétriques.
Inflation.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS > Public Finance.
Debts, Public > Econometric models
Fiscal policy > Econometric models
public debt.
inflation.
economic growth.
dette publique.
croissance économique.
deuda pública.
inflación.
crecimiento económico.
United States
USA.
Etats-Unis.
Estados Unidos.
IMF pub.
pub FMI.
Acceso en línea:Texto completo
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Empirical Model, Estimation, and Data; A. Empirical Model; B. Estimation and Impulse Responses; C. Data and Descriptive Statistics; IV. Public Debt Dynamics and Impulse Responses; A. Debt Impulse Responses to an Austerity Shock; B. Debt Impulse Responses to Inflation and Growth Shocks; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; Figures; 1. Evolution of Public Debt (Percent of GDP, 1947:II-2011:III); 2. Debt Impulse Response: The Effect of a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock.
  • 3. Decomposition of the Debt Impulse Response under the Narrative Identification4. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Average Initial Conditions (Normal Times); 5. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Initial Conditions of 2011; 6. A Recent History and Forecast of the Debt Ratio Based on the Past Dynamics (2011:IV- ); 7. Debt Impulse Responses to Macro Shocks and Decomposition: Blanchard-Perotti Identification; A1. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Impulse Responses (GIR Identification); Appendix A.
  • A2. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2011:IVA3. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2009:III; Appendix B.

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