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Public debt dynamics : the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks /
The author studies how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment,...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Autor Corporativo: | |
| Otros Autores: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2012.
|
| Colección: | IMF working paper ;
WP/12/230. |
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Cherif, Reda. | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Public debt dynamics : |b the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks / |c Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov. |
| 260 | |a Washington, D.C. : |b International Monetary Fund, |c 2012. | ||
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (28 pages) : |b charts | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
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| 490 | 1 | |a IMF working paper ; |v WP/12/230 | |
| 500 | |a At head of title: Institute for Capacity Development. | ||
| 500 | |a "September 2012." | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references (pages 14-16). | ||
| 520 | 3 | |a The author studies how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path. | |
| 505 | 0 | |a Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Empirical Model, Estimation, and Data; A. Empirical Model; B. Estimation and Impulse Responses; C. Data and Descriptive Statistics; IV. Public Debt Dynamics and Impulse Responses; A. Debt Impulse Responses to an Austerity Shock; B. Debt Impulse Responses to Inflation and Growth Shocks; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; Figures; 1. Evolution of Public Debt (Percent of GDP, 1947:II-2011:III); 2. Debt Impulse Response: The Effect of a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a 3. Decomposition of the Debt Impulse Response under the Narrative Identification4. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Average Initial Conditions (Normal Times); 5. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Initial Conditions of 2011; 6. A Recent History and Forecast of the Debt Ratio Based on the Past Dynamics (2011:IV- ); 7. Debt Impulse Responses to Macro Shocks and Decomposition: Blanchard-Perotti Identification; A1. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Impulse Responses (GIR Identification); Appendix A. | |
| 505 | 8 | |a A2. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2011:IVA3. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2009:III; Appendix B. | |
| 546 | |a English. | ||
| 590 | |a eBooks on EBSCOhost |b EBSCO eBook Subscription Academic Collection - Worldwide | ||
| 650 | 0 | |a Debts, Public |z United States |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Fiscal policy |z United States |x Econometric models. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Inflation (Finance) | |
| 650 | 2 | |a Inflation, Economic | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Dettes publiques |z États-Unis |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Politique fiscale |z États-Unis |x Modèles économétriques. | |
| 650 | 6 | |a Inflation. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a BUSINESS & ECONOMICS |x Public Finance. |2 bisacsh | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Debts, Public |x Econometric models |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Fiscal policy |x Econometric models |2 fast | |
| 651 | 7 | |a United States |2 fast | |
| 650 | 1 | 7 | |a public debt. |2 ilot |
| 650 | 1 | 7 | |a inflation. |2 ilot |
| 650 | 1 | 7 | |a economic growth. |2 ilot |
| 651 | 7 | |a USA. |2 ilot | |
| 650 | 1 | 7 | |a dette publique. |2 tbit |
| 650 | 1 | 7 | |a inflation. |2 tbit |
| 650 | 1 | 7 | |a croissance économique. |2 tbit |
| 651 | 7 | |a Etats-Unis. |2 tbit | |
| 650 | 1 | 7 | |a deuda pública. |2 toit |
| 650 | 1 | 7 | |a inflación. |2 toit |
| 650 | 1 | 7 | |a crecimiento económico. |2 toit |
| 651 | 7 | |a Estados Unidos. |2 toit | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Hasanov, Fuad, |d 1978- | |
| 710 | 2 | |a International Monetary Fund. |b Institute for Capacity Development. | |
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