Cargando…
Public debt dynamics : the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks /
The author studies how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment,...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Autor Corporativo: | |
| Otros Autores: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Washington, D.C. :
International Monetary Fund,
2012.
|
| Colección: | IMF working paper ;
WP/12/230. |
| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
| Sumario: | The author studies how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path. |
|---|---|
| Notas: | At head of title: Institute for Capacity Development. "September 2012." |
| Descripción Física: | 1 online resource (28 pages) : charts |
| Bibliografía: | Includes bibliographical references (pages 14-16). |
| ISBN: | 1475541279 9781475541274 1475510551 9781475510553 1475565542 9781475565546 1475593759 9781475593754 |