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Explaining Political Judgement.
A fresh theory of political judgment, using analysis of the Cuban Missile Crisis to provide new implications for political science.
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
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| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Cambridge :
Cambridge University Press,
2011.
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Cover; Explaining Political Judgement; Title; Copyright; Contents; Figures; Tables; Acknowledgements; Epigraph; I; II; III; 1 On political judgement; Characterising political judgement; Problems for political judgement; Argument; Significance of the argument; Structure of the book; 2 The need for richer explanation; Traditions of writing about political judgement; A character trait?; Do we need to explain judgement at all?; Not the common-or-garden problem with rational choice; Rationality needs institutions: but of what kind?; Endogenous preferences and rationalities.
- Attenuations of idealised rationalityBounded rationality in games; Bayesian updating of prior information or assumptions; Heuristics, biases and analogies; Prospect theory; 3 A Durkheimian theoretical framework; Forms of institutional explanation; Informal institutions; Core association; Expected range of variation; Ritual causal mechanisms and micro-foundations; The informal ritual order in politics and decision-making; Structure of explanation; Independent variables: measures of social organisation; Intermediating variables about mechanism; Dependent variables: political judgement.
- Categories, classification and anomaliesHindsight and foresight; Risk strategy and the domain of losses; Framing the actor's self-image in relation to losses; Reasons and goals; Issue linkage; Expected values; Relationships between theories and models; Answering critiques; 4 October 1962, before and after; Why re-examine the Cuban missile crisis?; A very short chronicle of the crisis; Decision to deploy: April to May; Build-up: May to September; The 'gravest issues'
- a warning backfires: 4 September to 15 October; The choosers
- ExComm and its lack of a counterpart: 16 to 22 October.
- Choices
- Kennedy's options: 16 to 20 OctoberRites of decision, rites of announcement: 17 to 22 October; Stand-off: 23 to 25 October; Manoeuvres on the brink: 26 October; Cross-wires and tripwires: 27 October; Climbdown at the last moment: 28 October; Aftermath; Theoretical frameworks applied to the Cuban missile crisis; 5 The Khrushchev régime; Isolate institutions and networks; Individualism, but subaltern to isolate ordering; Ritual forms: meetings, conversations and rituals of decision; communication; Isolate political judgement: reasons and goals; Risk stance in the domain of losses.
- Framing the selfLoss framing; The limits of strategy for the structural isolate; Issue linkage; Category formation and anomaly management; Hindsight and foresight; Misunderstanding the opponent; 6 The Kennedy administration; Individualistic institutions and networks; Ritual forms: meetings, conversations and rituals of decision; communication; Individualistic political judgement: reasons and goals; Risk stance in the domain of losses; Strategy under individualistic institutions; Category formation and anomaly management; Framing Soviet demands; Categorising issue linkage.