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Experts in uncertainty : opinion and subjective probability in science /

This volume contains an extensive survey and critical examination of current views on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy-making.

Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Cooke, Roger
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: New York : Oxford University Press, 1991.
Colección:Environmental ethics and science policy.
Temas:
Acceso en línea:Texto completo
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • Think tanks and oracles
  • Expert opinion in practice
  • Probabilistic thinking
  • Heuristics and biases
  • Building rational consensus
  • Savage's normative decision theory
  • Relative frequencies and exchangeability
  • Elicitation and scoring
  • Scoring rules for evaluating and weighing assessments
  • Two experiments with calibration and entropy
  • Combining expert opinions : review of the literature
  • Classical model
  • Bayesian model
  • Psychological scaling models : paired comparisons
  • Applications.