Playing Against Nature Integrating Science and Economics to Mitigate Natural Hazards in an Uncertain World.

Mostrar otras versiones (1)
Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Stein, Seth
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Newark : American Geophysical Union, 2014.
Colección:New York Academy of Sciences Ser.
Temas:
Electronic books.
Acceso en línea:Texto completo
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • Cover
  • Title page
  • Copyright page
  • Contents
  • Preface
  • Acknowledgments
  • Note on Further Reading and Sources
  • About the Companion Website
  • 1: A Tricky, High-Stakes Game
  • 1.1 Where We Are Today
  • 1.2 What We Need to Do Better
  • 1.3 How Can We Do Better?
  • Questions
  • Further Reading and Sources
  • References
  • 2: When Nature Won
  • 2.1 The Best-Laid Plans
  • 2.2 Why Hazard Assessment Went Wrong
  • 2.3 How Mitigation Fared
  • 2.4 The Challenges Ahead
  • Questions
  • Further Reading and Sources
  • References
  • 3: Nature Bats Last
  • 3.1 Prediction Is Hard
  • 3.2 Forecasts, Predictions, and Warnings
  • 3.3 Earthquake Prediction
  • 3.4 Chaos
  • Questions
  • Further Reading and Sources
  • References
  • 4: Uncertainty and Probability
  • 4.1 Basic Ideas
  • 4.2 Compound Events
  • 4.3 The Gaussian Distribution
  • 4.4 Probability vs Statistics
  • 4.5 Shallow and Deep Uncertainties
  • Questions
  • Further Reading and Sources
  • References
  • 5: Communicating What We Know and What We Don't
  • 5.1 Recognizing and Admitting Uncertainties
  • 5.2 Precision and Accuracy
  • 5.3 Testing Forecasts
  • 5.4 Communicating Forecasts
  • Questions
  • Further Reading and Sources
  • References
  • 6: Human Disasters
  • 6.1 Assessing Hazards
  • 6.2 Vulnerability and Interconnections
  • 6.3 The 2008 US Financial Disaster
  • 6.4 Pseudodisasters and Groupthink
  • 6.5 Disaster Chic
  • Questions
  • Further Reading and Sources
  • References
  • 7: How Much Is Enough?
  • 7.1 Rational Policy Making
  • 7.2 Lessons from National Defense
  • 7.3 Making Choices
  • 7.4 Uncertainty and Risk Aversion
  • 7.5 Present and Future Value
  • 7.6 Valuing Lives
  • 7.7 Implications for Natural Hazard Mitigation
  • Questions
  • Further Reading and Sources
  • References
  • 8: Guessing the Odds
  • 8.1 Big Events Are Rare
  • 8.2 Time-Independent Probability Models
  • 8.3 Time-Dependent Probability Models
  • Questions
  • Further Reading and Sources
  • References
  • 9: When's the Next Earthquake?
  • 9.1 A Very Tough Problem
  • 9.2 Earthquake Frequency-Magnitude Relation
  • 9.3 Earthquake Cycle Model
  • 9.4 Computing Earthquake Probabilities
  • 9.5 Shaky Probabilities
  • Questions
  • Further Reading and Sources
  • References
  • 10: Assessing Hazards
  • 10.1 Five Tough Questions
  • 10.2 Uncertainties
  • 10.3 How Is the Hazard Defined?
  • 10.4 Where Will Large Earthquakes Occur?
  • 10.5 When Will Large Earthquakes Occur?
  • 10.6 How Big Will the Large Earthquakes Be?
  • 10.7 How Much Shaking?
  • 10.8 Dealing With the Uncertainties
  • 10.9 Next Steps
  • Questions
  • Further Reading and Sources
  • References
  • 11: Mitigating Hazards
  • 11.1 Approaches
  • 11.2 Accepting Risk
  • 11.3 Transferring Risk
  • 11.4 Avoiding Risk
  • 11.5 Mitigating Risk
  • 11.6 Combined Strategies
  • Questions
  • Further Reading and Sources
  • References
  • 12: Choosing Mitigation Policies
  • 12.1 Making Choices
  • 12.2 House Fire Mitigation

Ejemplares similares