Reshaping Global Value Chains in Light of COVID-19 Implications for Trade and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries.

Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Brenton, Paul
Otros Autores: Ferrantino, Michael J., Maliszewska, Maryla
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: : World Bank Publications, 2022.
Temas:
Since 2020
Business networks > Developing countries.
COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- > Economic aspects > Developing countries.
Business networks
Commerce
Economics
International economic integration
Developing countries > Economic integration.
Developing countries > Commerce.
Developing countries
Acceso en línea:Texto completo
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • Front Cover
  • Contents
  • Foreword
  • Acknowledgments
  • About the Authors
  • Abbreviations
  • Main Messages
  • Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic for global value chains
  • Measures for managing a crisis and the recovery
  • Main policy messages
  • References
  • 1 Introduction and Overview
  • Experience from historical shocks
  • Scope and depth of the COVID-19 shock
  • Econometric evidence
  • Responses of firms and governments to supply chain shocks
  • Measures to maintain and enhance trade
  • Emerging climate change policies
  • Integration into the global economy and GVC participation remain key
  • Note
  • References
  • 2 Lessons from Historical Shocks to GVCs
  • Key messages
  • Introduction
  • GVCs and the impact of shocks on trade
  • Impacts at the intensive and the extensive margins
  • Export survival
  • Network analysis
  • Conclusions
  • Notes
  • References
  • 3 The COVID-19 Crisis and Trade Outcomes: A Review and Analysis of Major Trade Trends
  • Key messages
  • Introduction
  • Trends in trade and GDP
  • Short-term trade and GVC effects of the pandemic
  • Annex 3A Empirical strategy used to assess the short-term impact of COVID-19 on trade and GVCs
  • Notes
  • References
  • 4 Responses of Firms and Governments to Supply Chain Shocks Surrounding COVID-19
  • Key messages
  • Introduction
  • Traditional supply chain management and its limitations
  • Issues revealed by COVID-19
  • Firm-level adaptations in 2020
  • Private sector views of the transition
  • Government responses to supply chain issues during COVID-19
  • Issues with the recovery: Containers, semiconductors, and overlapping shocks
  • Notes
  • References
  • 5 The Key to COVID-19 Recovery and Poverty Alleviation: Globalization, Not Localization
  • Key messages
  • Introduction
  • Methodological framework and scenarios: Using data and tools to find answers.
  • Scenarios: COVID-19, climate change, and protectionist shocks to GVCs
  • The risks of GVC reshoring
  • The distributional impacts of reshoring
  • Climate change mitigation policies: Reshaping the comparative advantages of countries
  • Annex 5A Regional and sectoral aggregations in computable general equilibrium analysis
  • Notes
  • References
  • 6 COVID-19 and the Reshaping of GVCs: Policy Messages for Resilient Trade-Driven Development
  • Key messages
  • Introduction
  • Appropriate trade policy responses during a global crisis and in the recovery
  • Reviewing trade policies for better management of future shocks
  • Trade and development in a more uncertain world
  • Notes
  • References
  • Boxes
  • Box 3.1 Vietnam's trade experience during the pandemic
  • Box 3.2 Impact of the COVID-19 shock on the export performance of Cambodian firms
  • Box 4.1 Global supply chain disruption in 2021: Causes, consequences, and solutions
  • Box 6.1 Dos and don'ts of trade policy responses to a global crisis: The COVID-19 pandemic
  • Figures
  • Figure 1.1 Trade and poverty reduction in low- and middle-income countries, 1990-2017
  • Figure 1.2 Effects of COVID-19 lockdown policies on global value chains
  • Figure 3.1 Volume and type of trade and GDP, 2005-20
  • Figure 3.2 Monthly year-over-year change in the value of goods and services trade, 2019-21
  • Figure 3.3 Share of borders closed, by region, May 2020-February 2021
  • Figure 3.4 Number of commercial flights, by month, 2019-21
  • Figure 3.5 Value, volume, and price of merchandise trade
  • Figure 3.6 Merchandise trade of major trading countries, 2020 vs. 2019
  • Figure 3.7 Imports of China, EU-27, Japan, and the United States, January 2019-February 2021
  • Figure 3.8 Contribution of the intensive and extensive margins to the year-over-year change in global trade, 2019 and 2020.
  • Figure 3.9 Contribution of the intensive and extensive margins to the year-over-year change in global trade of low-income countries, 2019 and 2020
  • Figure 3.10 Propensity for lost and new trade flows at the extensive margin, 2019 and 2020
  • Figure 3.11 Propensity for lost imports of inputs from China and other countries, by country income level, 2019 and 2020
  • Figure B3.2.1 Average firm survival rate in Cambodia, by type and size of firm, 2016 Q1 to 2020 Q3
  • Figure 3.12 China's share of global merchandise exports, 2002-20
  • Figure 3.13 China's share of global exports, by product group, 2002-19
  • Figure 3.14 Change in the share of global exports, by country or region and sector, 2011-19
  • Figure 3.15 Shares of mirror exports to four economies (China, EU-27, Japan, and the United States), by country and product group, 2019-20
  • Figure 3.16 Change in IPI and work mobility in exporting countries, February to June 2020
  • Figure 3.17 Change in IPI and export growth in exporting countries, February to June 2020
  • Figure 3.18 Change in IPI and import growth in partner countries, February to June 2020
  • Figure 3.19 A simplified framework of bilateral trade growth
  • Figure 3.20 Impact of demand, supply, and third-country COVID-19 shocks on bilateral export growth
  • Figure 3.21 The impact of COVID-19 shocks on bilateral exports across sectors, 2020
  • Figure 3.22 The impact of COVID-19 shocks on bilateral exports through global value chain channels
  • Figure 5.1 Computable general equilibrium modeling scenarios
  • Figure 5.2 Change in real income in 2030 relative to 2019, by region and scenario
  • Figure 5.3 Real exports and real imports in 2030 relative to 2019, by region and scenario
  • Figure 5.4 Real income compared with COVID-19 L-shape recovery, by region and scenario, 2030.
  • Figure 5.5 Distributional impacts, by region and scenario, 2010-30
  • Figure 5.6 Reduction in extreme poverty in the GVC-friendly liberalization and TF imports scenario relative to pre-COVID-19 conditions, by region
  • Figure 5.7 Change in income of the bottom 40 ­percent and top 60 ­percent of the income distribution relative to the COVID-19 L-shape recovery, by scenario and region
  • Figure 5.8 Wages for unskilled females relative to rest of wages, 2030, by scenario and region
  • Figure 5.9 Change in CO2 emissions in 2030 relative to the pre-COVID-19 baseline: Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and NDC targets, by region
  • Figure 5.10 Change in exports and imports due to the implementation of NDC policies, 2030 relative to the post-COVID-19 baseline, by region
  • Figure 5.11 Impacts of the CBAM on total exports by EU trading partners and carbon intensity of exports to the EU: 2030 relative to the EU Green Deal implementation scenario, by region
  • Figure 5.12 Impacts of the EU Green Deal and CBAM on output in the EU: 2030 relative to the scenario with NDCs, by sector
  • Figure 5.13 Impacts of the EU Green Deal and CBAM on EU imports, 2030 relative to scenario with NDCs, by sector
  • Figure 5.14 Impacts of CBAM on Europe and Central Asia, 2030
  • Figure 5.15 Impacts of climate mitigation policies on GVC participation: 2030 relative to the the post-COVID-19 baseline and GVC participation rate, by country and region
  • Figure 5.16 Impacts of climate mitigation policies on GVC participation: 2030 relative to the the post-COVID-19 baseline, by sector
  • Figure 5.17 Impacts of the CBAM on GVC participation for the electronics sector, by country and region
  • Maps
  • Map 3.1 COVID-19-related travel restrictions, February 2021
  • Map 6.1 Implementation status of COVID-19-related export curbs in the medical sector
  • Tables.
  • Table 3.1 Growth of exports and imports, by region and income group, 2020 vs. 2019
  • Table 3.2 Share of exiting trade flows that did not reappear by the end of the year, 2019 and 2020
  • Table 3A.1 Short-term impact of COVID-19 on trade: Regression coefficients for different samples of countries
  • Table 4.1 Top concerns of Chamber of Commerce members in Europe, 2019 and 2020
  • Table 5.1 Real income, real exports, and real imports compared with a COVID-19 L-shape recovery, by region and scenario, 2030
  • Table 5.2 Top-three increases in export sectors for the reshoring leading economies scenario: Change in the value of exports compared with the COVID-19 L-shape scenario, by region
  • Table 5.3 Top-three increases in import sectors for the reshoring leading economies scenario: Change in the value of imports compared with the COVID-19 L-shape scenario, by region
  • Table 5.4 Number of people lifted from extreme poverty and joining the global middle class, by region and scenario
  • Table 5.5 Changes in output following NDC implementation, by sector and region
  • Table 5.6 Impacts of the EU Green Deal and CBAM on selected sectors of EU trading partners relative to the scenario with NDCs, by region
  • Table 5A.1 Regional and sectoral aggressions in computable general equilibrium analysis.

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