The fallout of war : the regional consequences of the conflict in Syria /

The people of the Mashreq have seen more than their share of deaths, economic losses, and instability over the past decade. As the decade-long conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic created new challenges and worsened the existing ones, economic activity declined, labor markets deteriorated, and pover...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Onder, Harun (Autor, Editor )
Otros Autores: Sayed, Haneen (Editor )
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Washington, DC : World Bank Group, [2020]
Temas:
2011
Interregionalism > Middle East.
Politics and war > Middle East.
Economics
Interregionalism
Politics and war
Social aspects
Syria > History > Civil War, 2011- > Economic aspects.
Syria > History > Civil War, 2011- > Social aspects.
Syrie > Histoire > 2011- (Guerre civile) > Aspect économique.
Syrie > Histoire > 2011- (Guerre civile) > Aspect social.
Middle East
Syria
Electronic books.
History
Acceso en línea:Texto completo
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • Front Cover
  • Contents
  • Acknowledgments
  • Abbreviations
  • Key Messages
  • Overview
  • Analytical strategy
  • The nature of the impact
  • The preconditions of the fallout
  • Looking ahead: A tale of two futures
  • Notes
  • References
  • 1. Prelude
  • Mashreq: A timeline retrospective
  • Measuring the impact: Methodological issues
  • The analytical strategy of this study
  • Notes
  • References
  • 2. The Mechanisms of the Fallout
  • Exposure to shocks
  • Institutional resilience
  • Notes
  • References
  • 3. A Survey of the Outcomes
  • Macroeconomic trends
  • Fiscal trends
  • Labor market trends
  • Poverty trends
  • Access to public services and infrastructure
  • Environmental trends
  • Notes
  • References
  • 4. Unraveling the Nature of the Impact
  • The impact on GDP
  • Drivers of the GDP impact
  • Distributional implications of the GDP impact
  • Fiscal implications of the GDP impact
  • Discussion
  • Notes
  • References
  • 5. The Aftermath: A Tale of Two Futures
  • The fallout prospects
  • A unilateral approach
  • A regional approach for a better equilibrium
  • A deus ex machina for the Mashreq theater?
  • Notes
  • References
  • Appendixes
  • A. Data Sources for Chapter 2
  • B. Estimating the Impact of the Syrian Conflict on Capital Flows
  • C. Technical Notes for Chapter 4
  • Boxes
  • Box 4.1. Estimations based on the synthetic control method
  • Box 5.1. Regionalism, conflict, and public services
  • Box 5.2. Digital infrastructure outlook
  • Box 5.3. Regionalism across three historical periods in the Mashreq
  • Figures
  • Figure O.1. Analytical strategy
  • Figure O.2. Technical strategy for analyzing the impact
  • Figure O.3. GDP growth rate comparison, 2000-10 versus actual 2010-18 versus counterfactual 2010-18
  • Figure O.4. GDP growth gains in selected Mashreq countries from security and service restoration in the Syrian Arab Republic
  • Figure 1.1. Timeline of key events
  • Figure 1.2. Growth and external receipts in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, middle-income countries, and MENA countries
  • Figure 1.3. Analytical strategy
  • Figure 1.4. Technical strategy for analyzing the impact
  • Figure 2.1. Shares of Syrian refugees, by governorate in Iraq, 2012-19
  • Figure 2.2. Population distribution in Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, 2010 versus 2019
  • Figure 2.3. Unemployment rates in Iraq, by age, education, and gender, 2017
  • Figure 2.4. Merchandise trade openness and the level of income per capita, 2008-10 versus 2016-18
  • Figure 2.5. Net capital flows to Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, 2006-10 versus 2011-17
  • Figure 2.6. Estimates of average unrecorded capital movements, selected Mashreq countries, 2011-17
  • Figure 2.7. Governance indicators, selected Mashreq countries, 2010 versus 2018
  • Figure 3.1. Real GDP levels and growth, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon
  • Figure 3.2. Growth decomposition for Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, supply side

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