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The fallout of war : the regional consequences of the conflict in Syria /
The people of the Mashreq have seen more than their share of deaths, economic losses, and instability over the past decade. As the decade-long conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic created new challenges and worsened the existing ones, economic activity declined, labor markets deteriorated, and pover...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Otros Autores: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Washington, DC :
World Bank Group,
[2020]
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
MARC
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| 003 | OCoLC | ||
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| 019 | |a 1202468940 |a 1237600012 | ||
| 020 | |a 9781464816154 |q (electronic bk.) | ||
| 020 | |a 1464816158 |q (electronic bk.) | ||
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| 245 | 0 | 4 | |a The fallout of war : |b the regional consequences of the conflict in Syria / |c prepared by a multidisciplinary team led by Harun Onder (lead author and Senior Economist) and Haneen Sayed (Lead Social Protection and Jobs Specialist). |
| 264 | 1 | |a Washington, DC : |b World Bank Group, |c [2020] | |
| 300 | |a 1 online resource (xiii, 222 pages) : |b color illustrations, color maps. | ||
| 336 | |a text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a computer |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a online resource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 504 | |a Includes bibliographical references. | ||
| 520 | |a The people of the Mashreq have seen more than their share of deaths, economic losses, and instability over the past decade. As the decade-long conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic created new challenges and worsened the existing ones, economic activity declined, labor markets deteriorated, and poverty increased. These trends would overwhelm even the most advanced economies in the world. This publication identifies the impact of the Syrian conflict on economic and social outcomes in Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. It combines a large number of data sources, statistical approaches, and a suite of economic models to isolate the specific impact of the Syrian conflict from that of global and regional factors, and it explicitly analyzes the mechanisms through which such an impact is manifested. The analysis suggests that a persistent short-termism in policy making has so far propagated the shock emanating from the Syrian conflict, which led to costly and ineffective service provision, lost economic opportunities, and underfunded programs. The report advocates for a fundamental shift from the short-term mitigation policies to a medium-term regional strategy to address pertinent structural problems. Moreover, as the countries in the Mashreq look toward recovery, a policy approach that takes into account the region's interconnectedness and seeks to build on it provides better prospects for the people. Such a regional approach that addresses cross-boundary issues-- including migration, trade, and infrastructure-- will require local, regional, and international commitments. | ||
| 588 | |a Description based on resource, viewed December 3, 2020. | ||
| 505 | 0 | |a Front Cover -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Key Messages -- Overview -- Analytical strategy -- The nature of the impact -- The preconditions of the fallout -- Looking ahead: A tale of two futures -- Notes -- References -- 1. Prelude -- Mashreq: A timeline retrospective -- Measuring the impact: Methodological issues -- The analytical strategy of this study -- Notes -- References -- 2. The Mechanisms of the Fallout -- Exposure to shocks -- Institutional resilience -- Notes -- References -- 3. A Survey of the Outcomes -- Macroeconomic trends -- Fiscal trends | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Labor market trends -- Poverty trends -- Access to public services and infrastructure -- Environmental trends -- Notes -- References -- 4. Unraveling the Nature of the Impact -- The impact on GDP -- Drivers of the GDP impact -- Distributional implications of the GDP impact -- Fiscal implications of the GDP impact -- Discussion -- Notes -- References -- 5. The Aftermath: A Tale of Two Futures -- The fallout prospects -- A unilateral approach -- A regional approach for a better equilibrium -- A deus ex machina for the Mashreq theater? -- Notes -- References -- Appendixes | |
| 505 | 8 | |a A. Data Sources for Chapter 2 -- B. Estimating the Impact of the Syrian Conflict on Capital Flows -- C. Technical Notes for Chapter 4 -- Boxes -- Box 4.1. Estimations based on the synthetic control method -- Box 5.1. Regionalism, conflict, and public services -- Box 5.2. Digital infrastructure outlook -- Box 5.3. Regionalism across three historical periods in the Mashreq -- Figures -- Figure O.1. Analytical strategy -- Figure O.2. Technical strategy for analyzing the impact -- Figure O.3. GDP growth rate comparison, 2000-10 versus actual 2010-18 versus counterfactual 2010-18 | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Figure O.4. GDP growth gains in selected Mashreq countries from security and service restoration in the Syrian Arab Republic -- Figure 1.1. Timeline of key events -- Figure 1.2. Growth and external receipts in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, middle-income countries, and MENA countries -- Figure 1.3. Analytical strategy -- Figure 1.4. Technical strategy for analyzing the impact -- Figure 2.1. Shares of Syrian refugees, by governorate in Iraq, 2012-19 -- Figure 2.2. Population distribution in Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, 2010 versus 2019 | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Figure 2.3. Unemployment rates in Iraq, by age, education, and gender, 2017 -- Figure 2.4. Merchandise trade openness and the level of income per capita, 2008-10 versus 2016-18 -- Figure 2.5. Net capital flows to Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, 2006-10 versus 2011-17 -- Figure 2.6. Estimates of average unrecorded capital movements, selected Mashreq countries, 2011-17 -- Figure 2.7. Governance indicators, selected Mashreq countries, 2010 versus 2018 -- Figure 3.1. Real GDP levels and growth, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon -- Figure 3.2. Growth decomposition for Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, supply side | |
| 590 | |a ProQuest Ebook Central |b Ebook Central Academic Complete | ||
| 651 | 0 | |a Syria |x History |y Civil War, 2011- |x Economic aspects. | |
| 651 | 0 | |a Syria |x History |y Civil War, 2011- |x Social aspects. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Interregionalism |z Middle East. | |
| 650 | 0 | |a Politics and war |z Middle East. | |
| 651 | 6 | |a Syrie |x Histoire |y 2011- (Guerre civile) |x Aspect économique. | |
| 651 | 6 | |a Syrie |x Histoire |y 2011- (Guerre civile) |x Aspect social. | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Economics |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Interregionalism |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Politics and war |2 fast | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Social aspects |2 fast | |
| 651 | 7 | |a Middle East |2 fast | |
| 651 | 7 | |a Syria |2 fast |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39QbtfRrbPWVQ3tvhM9q9jX7B | |
| 647 | 7 | |a Syrian Civil War |c (Syria : |d 2011-) |2 fast |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39Qhp4vB9BhCjQhKXRtq6xRpX | |
| 648 | 7 | |a 2011 |2 fast | |
| 655 | 0 | |a Electronic books. | |
| 655 | 7 | |a History |2 fast | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Onder, Harun, |e author, |e editor. | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sayed, Haneen, |e editor. | |
| 758 | |i has work: |a The fallout of war (Text) |1 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/entity/E39PCFGX69YTv9hwJFr3WRvGVy |4 https://id.oclc.org/worldcat/ontology/hasWork | ||
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