The Failure of Risk Management : Why It's Broken and How to Fix It.

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"The Failure of Risk Management is about a serious problem in the business of risk analysis and how to fix it. Basic analysis methods are unused, or misapplied, in many major corporate and government decisions. This book shows how some of the most popular "risk analysis" methods are n...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Hubbard, Douglas W.
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Newark : John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, 2020.
Edición:2nd ed.
Temas:
Risk management.
Gestion du risque.
risk management.
Risk management
Acceso en línea:Texto completo
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • Intro
  • Table of Contents
  • About the Author
  • Preface
  • Acknowledgments
  • PART ONE: An Introduction to the Crisis
  • CHAPTER 1: Healthy Skepticism for Risk Management
  • A "COMMON MODE FAILURE"
  • KEY DEFINITIONS: RISK MANAGEMENT AND SOME RELATED TERMS
  • WHAT FAILURE MEANS
  • SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES OF THIS BOOK
  • NOTES
  • CHAPTER 2: A Summary of the Current State of Risk Management
  • A SHORT AND ENTIRELY-TOO-SUPERFICIAL HISTORY OF RISK
  • CURRENT STATE OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION
  • CURRENT RISKS AND HOW THEY ARE ASSESSED
  • NOTES
  • CHAPTER 3: How Do We Know What Works?
  • ANECDOTE: THE RISK OF OUTSOURCING DRUG MANUFACTURING
  • WHY IT'S HARD TO KNOW WHAT WORKS
  • AN ASSESSMENT OF SELF-ASSESSMENTS
  • POTENTIAL OBJECTIVE EVALUATIONS OF RISK MANAGEMENT
  • WHAT WE MAY FIND
  • NOTES
  • CHAPTER 4: Getting Started: A Simple Straw Man Quantitative Model
  • A SIMPLE ONE-FOR-ONE SUBSTITUTION
  • THE EXPERT AS THE INSTRUMENT
  • A QUICK OVERVIEW OF "UNCERTAINTY MATH"
  • ESTABLISHING RISK TOLERANCE
  • SUPPORTING THE DECISION: A RETURN ON MITIGATION
  • MAKING THE STRAW MAN BETTER
  • NOTE
  • PART TWO: Why It's Broken
  • CHAPTER 5: The "Four Horsemen" of Risk Management: Some (Mostly) Sincere Attempts to Prevent an Apocalypse
  • ACTUARIES
  • WAR QUANTS: HOW WORLD WAR II CHANGED RISK ANALYSIS FOREVER
  • ECONOMISTS
  • MANAGEMENT CONSULTING: HOW A POWER TIE AND A GOOD PITCH CHANGED RISK MANAGEMENT
  • COMPARING THE HORSEMEN
  • MAJOR RISK MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS TO BE ADDRESSED
  • NOTES
  • CHAPTER 6: An Ivory Tower of Babel: Fixing the Confusion about Risk
  • THE FRANK KNIGHT DEFINITION
  • KNIGHT'S INFLUENCE IN FINANCE AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT
  • A CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING DEFINITION
  • RISK AS EXPECTED LOSS
  • DEFINING RISK TOLERANCE
  • DEFINING PROBABILITY
  • ENRICHING THE LEXICON
  • NOTES
  • CHAPTER 7: The Limits of Expert Knowledge: Why We Don't Know What We Think We Know about Uncertainty
  • THE RIGHT STUFF: HOW A GROUP OF PSYCHOLOGISTS MIGHT SAVE RISK ANALYSIS
  • MENTAL MATH: WHY WE SHOULDN'T TRUST THE NUMBERS IN OUR HEADS
  • "CATASTROPHIC" OVERCONFIDENCE
  • THE MIND OF "ACES": POSSIBLE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF OVERCONFIDENCE
  • INCONSISTENCIES AND ARTIFACTS: WHAT SHOULDN'T MATTER DOES
  • ANSWERS TO CALIBRATION TESTS
  • NOTES
  • CHAPTER 8: Worse Than Useless: The Most Popular Risk Assessment Method and Why It Doesn't Work
  • A FEW EXAMPLES OF SCORES AND MATRICES
  • DOES THAT COME IN "MEDIUM"?: WHY AMBIGUITY DOES NOT OFFSET UNCERTAINTY
  • UNINTENDED EFFECTS OF SCALES: WHAT YOU DON'T KNOW CAN HURT YOU
  • DIFFERENT BUT SIMILAR-SOUNDING METHODS AND SIMILAR BUT DIFFERENT-SOUNDING METHODS
  • NOTES
  • CHAPTER 9: Bears, Swans and Other Obstacles to Improved Risk Management
  • ALGORITHM AVERSION AND A KEY FALLACY
  • ALGORITHMS VERSUS EXPERTS: GENERALIZING THE FINDINGS
  • A NOTE ABOUT BLACK SWANS

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