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The laws of trading : a trader's guide to better decision-making for everyone /
Every decision is a trade. Learn to think about the ones you should do-and the ones you shouldn't. Trading books generally break down into two categories: the ones which claim to teach you how to make money trading, and the memoir-style books recounting scandals and bad behavior. But the former...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
|---|---|
| Autor principal: | |
| Otros Autores: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Hoboken, New Jersey :
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,
[2019]
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Cover
- Title Page
- Copyright
- Contents
- Acknowledgments
- Foreword by Aaron Brown
- As old and as true as the sky
- Introduction
- What Is Trading?
- Why Study Trading?
- What Are Financial Markets?
- Vested Interests
- Who This Book Is For
- What This Book Will Not Do for You, and What It Will
- Why Laws?
- References
- Chapter 1 Motivation
- Why Are You Trading?
- Shouldn't This Chapter Be Short?
- Greed and Fear
- Boredom
- The Zone
- Risk Seeking
- Wanting a Big Score
- Intellectual Validation
- Why Does Motivation Matter?
- Make Peace with Your Motivations, or Change Them
- The Role of "You"
- Protecting Ourselves
- Making "You" Small
- Caring about the Right Things
- Precommitment and Hindsight
- Self-Knowledge and Precommitment in Other Contexts
- Buying a New Car
- Navigating the Job Market
- Precommitment for Self-Improvement
- Summary and Looking Ahead
- References
- Chapter 2 Adverse Selection
- An Information Theoretic View of Trading
- A Holy War among Statisticians
- Having Beliefs and Updating Them
- Using Our Updated Beliefs
- After the Trade
- It's All Bayes, All the Way Down
- Markets and Society
- A Paradox: Why Does Anyone Trade at All?
- Special Trades
- Keeping Your Head When Others Are Losing Theirs
- Adverse Selection in Other Financial Markets
- IPOs
- Rights Issues
- An Extra Special Rights Issue
- Adverse Selection in Everyday Life
- eBay and the Winner's Curse
- Store Sales and Specials
- Job Market
- Insurance
- Summary and Looking Ahead
- References
- Chapter 3 Risk
- What Do We Mean by Capital?
- Self-Financing Portfolios
- Collateral and Capital
- Being Right and Losing Anyway
- Risk and Hedging
- What Is Risk?
- VaR and the Mismeasure of Risk
- Gaming the Measure
- What Sorts of Risks Are There?
- Evaluating and Measuring Risk.
- Top-down Risk
- Bottom-up Risk (A Worked Example)
- Risk Systems
- The Varieties of Market Risk
- Identifying Risks
- Optimizing the Hedge
- Risk, Utility, and Catastrophic Risk
- Risk in Everyday Life
- Insurance
- Job Offer Decisions
- Useful Paranoia and Natural Hedges
- Summary and Looking Ahead
- References
- Chapter 4 Liquidity
- Liquidity Is in the Eye of the Beholder
- Size
- Frequency
- Uniqueness
- Transparency
- Heterogeneity
- Risk and Liquidity
- Buy FITB Shares
- Buy FITB Single-Stock Future
- Buy FITB Calls
- Sell FITB Puts
- Buy XLF
- Buy SPY
- Conclusion
- Liquidity in a Broader Context
- Memberships and Contracts
- Housing
- The Job Market
- Finding Liquidity
- Buying a Car
- The Rise of Amazon
- Summary and Looking Ahead
- Bibliography
- Chapter 5 Edge
- What Is Edge?
- Understanding and Acting
- Marginal Traders, and Why They're the Only Ones that Matter
- Telling Stories
- Biases Big and Small
- Overconfidence Bias
- Confirmation Bias
- The Competitiveness of Financial Markets
- Are Stories Really Necessary?
- Constructing Reasons
- Creativity
- Persistence
- Quantitative Review
- Qualitative Review
- Practicality
- Go Try It
- The Nature of Real-World Edges
- The German Tax Dividend Trade
- When Edges Break
- Edges in a Broader Context
- Edges in the Workplace
- Your Personal Edge
- Summary and Looking Ahead
- References
- Chapter 6 Models
- Some Light Philosophy
- What Should Models Be?
- Scary Generative Models
- Scary Phenomenological Models
- Disagreements about Scariness
- Useful Simplifications
- An Example from High-Frequency Trading
- Putting the Cart before the Horse
- Characteristics of Good Models
- Robustness
- Hardware, Software, and Wetware
- Inspectability
- Data Management and Model Building
- Data Scarcity
- How Much Data Is Necessary?
- Partitioning the Data
- The Process of Building Models
- Development versus Production
- When Models Break
- How Much Variation Is Expected?
- Assessing Strategy Changes
- A General Approach
- Models in the Real World
- Humans Are Model-Building Machines
- Models of the World
- Models of Other People
- Models of Ourselves
- Summary and Looking Ahead
- References
- Chapter 7 Costs and Capacity
- Introduction
- Categorizing Costs
- Quadrant 1: Visible Linear Costs
- Quadrant 2: Visible Nonlinear Costs
- Quadrant 3: Invisible Linear Costs
- Estimating Depreciation Rates
- A Little-Appreciated Fact about Trade Depreciation
- Quadrant 4: Invisible Nonlinear Costs
- Herding
- Accounting for Herding Risk
- Opportunity Cost
- Unknown Unknowns
- Bell Labs and the Sociology of Innovation
- The Landscape of Trades
- Overestimating Profitability
- Underestimating Cost
- The Ownership of Trades
- Summary and Looking Ahead
- References
- Chapter 8 Possibility
- Six Impossible Things before Breakfast
- Logical Possibility
- Physical Possibility
- The Inductive Hypothesis
- What's Special about Today?
- Induction in Financial Markets
- Feedback Systems and Their Stability
- A Normal Market in a Stock
- A Bigger Trade
- The Squeeze
- Some Comments
- The Anti-Inductive Behavior of Markets
- Correlations and Low-Probability Events
- Correlations and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008
- Aftermath
- Probabilities and the Effect of Correlation
- Practical Techniques for Evaluating Possibilities
- Taking It up a Notch: Bet on It
- Some Historical Episodes
- Portfolio Insurance and the 1987 Market Crash
- Incinerating Money in Japan: The Dentsu IPO
- "Impossible" Events in 2008
- The Chief Unpegs
- Summary and Looking Ahead
- References
- Chapter 9 Alignment
- The Ballad of Victor Niederhoffer
- Roles
- Capital.