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[Avoiding] coping with surprise in great power conflicts /
Surprise has always been an element of warfare, but the return of great power competition-- and the high-level threat that it poses--gives urgency to thinking about surprise now. Because the future is highly uncertain, and great powers have not fought each other for over 70 years, surprise is highly...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
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| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Washington, DC :
Center for Strategic & International Studies,
2018.
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Coping With Surprise In Great Power Conflicts; Contents; Acknowledgments; Executive summary; Why think about surprise now?; What is surprise?; Some surprise is inevitable; It's more than surprise attack; So, what to do?; Chapter 1: Why Think about Surprise Now?; Return of great power competition: Back to the future; The long peace; Changes in warfighting; Hubris; Chapter 2: Approaching the Problem; What is "surprise"?; Why surprise matters; Coping with surprise now; Great power conflicts, conventional conflicts, and first battles; Using vignettes; Helping policymakers.
- Types of surprise: strategic, technological, doctrinal, diplomatic/politicalNot a net assessment; Chapter 3: The Inevitability of Surprise; The debate about surprise; Why surprise is inevitable; The Inherent difficulty of predicting the future; Human weakness; Vulnerability of status quo powers; Known and unknown; Chapter 4: Strategic Surprise; Shock produces a rich literature but uncertain progress; Areas of current vulnerability; Chapter 5: Technological Surprise; Surprise from an adversary's technology; Surprise from failure in our own technology: "a stab in the back."
- Areas of current vulnerabilityChapter 6: Doctrinal Surprise; Many paths to doctrinal surprise; When our own doctrine fails: best laid plans that go astray; Areas of current vulnerability; Chapter 7: Political/Diplomatic Surprise; Diplomacy-Beware the realists; Politics; Areas of current vulnerability; Chapter 8: What to Do? Preparing for and Managing Surprise; General principles; Anticipation; Resilience; Adaptation; Appendix: Vignettes; Strategic Surprise; Vignette #1: Russian Blitz in the Baltics; Vignette #2: China Invades Taiwan; Vignette #3: China Attacks Vietnam; Technological Surprise.
- Vignette #4: "Assassin's Mace"-Asymmetric Cyber AttackVignette #5: Biological Enhancements to Special Operations Soldiers; Vignette #6: U.S. Military Satellites Neutralized; Vignette #7: Pearl Harbor 2.0-Drone Style; Vignette #8: NATO Submarines Located and Attacked through Nonacoustic Submarine Sensors; Vignette #9: Stealth Strike Fails-Schweinfurt-Regensburg for the Twenty-first Century; Vignette #10: A Technological Stab in the Back-Bad Chips in Air-to-air Missiles; Doctrinal Surprise; Vignette #11: Cruise Missile Strike on the U.S. Homeland; Vignette #12: Decapitation of U.S. Leadership.
- Vignette #13: Espionage Enables Attacks on U.S. Military SealiftVignette #14: Hybrid Attack on NATO; Diplomatic/Political Surprise; Vignette #15: U.S. Alliances in East Asia Collapse; Vignette #16: Panama Declares Neutrality in U.S.-China Conflict; Vignette #17: Cuban Missile Crisis-Round 2; Vignette #18: Senior U.S. Military Commanders Arrested for Alleged War Crimes; About the Author.