The energy world is flat : opportunities from the end of peak oil /

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A stronger, more informed approach to the energy markets The Energy World Is Flat provides a forward-lookinganalysis of the energy markets and addresses the implications oftheir rapid transformation. Written by acknowledged expert DanielLacalle, who is actively engaged with energy portfolios in thef...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Lacalle, Daniel
Otros Autores: Parrilla, Diego, 1973-
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Chichester, West Sussex, United Kingdom : John Wiley & Sons, 2015.
Temas:
Energy security.
Energy consumption.
Petroleum reserves.
Petroleum industry and trade.
Energy industries.
Sécurité énergétique.
Pétrole > Réserves.
Pétrole > Industrie et commerce.
Industries énergétiques.
Énergie > Consommation.
energy consumption.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS > Real Estate > General.
Energy consumption
Energy industries
Energy security
Petroleum industry and trade
Petroleum reserves
Acceso en línea:Texto completo
Texto completo
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • Cover
  • Title Page
  • Copyright
  • Contents
  • Disclaimer
  • Chapter 1 The Mother of All Battles. The Flattening and Globalization of the Energy World
  • Nuclear politics
  • The sustained spike in natural gas prices
  • Fracking and the collapse in US natural gas prices
  • US tight oil
  • Geopolitics and high crude oil prices
  • Expensive oil, cheap natural gas
  • The market does not attack, it defends itself
  • Winners and losers
  • Chapter 2 Lessons from the Internet Revolution and the Dotcom Bubble
  • The bubble path
  • Technological revolutions that increase supply. The "game changers"
  • High expectations attract large amounts of capital
  • Excessive expectations for demand growth result in overcapacity
  • Think "against the box"
  • The strategic premium results in overcapacity
  • Overcapacity eventually reprices assets and the cost of services
  • New technologies displace older and more expensive ones
  • New technologies increase competition and create deflationary forces
  • The bubble accelerated the impact of the revolution
  • Timing: there is no such thing as a crystal ball
  • Investors must avoid the growth mirage and value traps
  • Lessons not to forget
  • Chapter 3 The 10 Forces that are Flattening the Energy World
  • Is the energy world flat?
  • Chapter 4 Flattener #1
  • Geopolitics: The Two Sides of the Energy Security Coin
  • The oil weapon
  • The revenge of the oil economy
  • The Arab Spring
  • Iraq 2014, the crisis that brought prices ... down!
  • The Venezuelan Spring
  • Reserve nationalism and barriers of entry
  • The gas weapon
  • Russia versus Ukraine and the west?
  • Ukraine shale gas
  • The annexation of Crimea
  • Europe needs Russia's gas ... but for how long?
  • Notes
  • Chapter 5 Flattener #2
  • The Energy Reserves and Resources Glut
  • What energy scarcity?
  • Reserves and resources.
  • Crude oil concentration, but no shortage
  • OPEC almighty
  • Reserve protectionism
  • Marginal cost of production
  • The "unconventional" resources
  • Discoveries vs. additions: "can we rely on finding new oil fields?"
  • Sorry, no peak oil
  • Peak oil is a myth
  • The spirit of peak oil
  • No Peak Gas Either
  • Gas formulas: "Water at Coca-Cola prices"
  • Finally an Asian benchmark
  • Let's buy Africa!
  • Notes
  • Chapter 6 Flattener #3
  • Horizontal Drilling and Fracking
  • Never bet against an engineer
  • Technology increases volume
  • Innovation vs. imitation
  • "Fracking" and horizontal drilling
  • Myths and realities of shale gas and tight oil
  • What environmental impact?
  • What contamination of drinking water aquifers?
  • What flow back?
  • How about water scarcity?
  • What induced seismic activity?
  • What methane migration?
  • Are horizontal drilling and fracking commercially viable?
  • Are governments supportive of fracking?
  • How about shale gas and tight oil in China?
  • What about the EROEI of shale gas?
  • Notes
  • Chapter 7 Flattener #4
  • The Energy Broadband
  • Pipelines open new markets
  • Pipelines are very capital- and time-intensive investments
  • The Eurasian continental network
  • LNG and the globalization of natural gas
  • From regional to global
  • LNG super-cycle
  • The winners and losers of the big asset write-off
  • Solid methane
  • Storage bottlenecks and commodity islands
  • The high watermark and volatility dampeners
  • Global strategic petroleum reserves
  • Shipping, floating pipelines and storage
  • The boom and bust of shipping
  • Debottlenecking and super-backwardation
  • Notes
  • Chapter 8 Flattener #5
  • Overcapacity
  • Déjà-Vu
  • Diplomatic demand outlook
  • Saudi Arabia heavy sour crude oil
  • Location, location, location
  • Pro-cyclical behaviour
  • Notes.
  • Chapter 9 Flattener #6
  • Globalization, Industrialization, and Urbanization
  • Testing the hypothesis of "Ever-Increasing" demand
  • Demographic trend #1. The global population is growing, but at a slower pace
  • Population growth vs. economic growth vs. energy demand growth
  • The "Diplomatic" demand clause
  • Notes
  • Chapter 10 Flattener #7
  • Demand Destruction
  • More with less
  • The "Invisible Hand" of efficiency
  • The "Visible Hand" of efficiency
  • Note
  • Chapter 11 Flattener #8
  • Demand Displacement
  • The Battle for Transportation Demand
  • What the production engineers missed
  • The "Challengers"
  • Biofuels
  • Natural gas
  • Bi-fuel engines
  • Coal to liquids (CTL) and gas to liquids (GTL)
  • Electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrids (HEVs)
  • Air transportation
  • Sea transportation
  • The end of crude oil's monopoly in transportation
  • #1 Upfront cost
  • #2 Running cost
  • #3 Range and convenience
  • The "Chicken and Egg" of Refuelling Stations
  • Re-fuelling at home
  • #4 Performance
  • #5 Environment and subsidies
  • #6 Safety
  • #7 Security of supply
  • The new frontier: hydrogen fuel
  • "Who killed the electric car?"
  • #1 Government bail-outs and subsidies
  • #2 The tax cash cow
  • #3 The wrong model for the industry?
  • The Battle for Electricity and Industrial Demand
  • Future fuel mix
  • The Energy Domino
  • Natural gas displaces coal in power generation
  • US natural gas displaces diesel in transportation
  • Solar displaces crude oil for power generation in Saudi Arabia
  • Renewables displace natural gas from peak power demand
  • The "visible hand" of environmental regulation displaces coal
  • The "visible hand" of politics displaces nuclear
  • The transmission to equity valuations
  • Notes
  • Chapter 12 Flattener #9
  • Regulation and Government Intervention
  • The role of the government
  • Regulation vs. free markets.
  • The virtuous mix of regulation and free markets
  • The vicious mix of regulation and politics
  • Carrot and stick
  • Privatization and deregulation are not the same
  • Independence of the regulator
  • The political cycle is too short
  • The War on Pollution and Coal
  • The war on pollution
  • The war on coal
  • Technology vs. pollution
  • Regulatory constraints to coal plants
  • Coal subsidies
  • The clean and dirty spreads
  • Second order effects from cheap coal
  • The world of coal is flat
  • Renewable Energy and the Disinflation of Power Prices
  • Negative electricity prices
  • The collapse in the valuation of European utilities
  • Renewables have changed the rules of power generation
  • Implications from the new rules
  • Are retail consumers better off?
  • The world of wind power is becoming flat
  • Don Quixote's windmills
  • Wind power
  • Wind competitiveness
  • The world of solar power is far from flat
  • Germany and the European Union love affair with solar
  • The debacle of solar equities
  • What went wrong?
  • Marginal cost of solar PV is getting cheaper
  • Solar leasing and green bonds
  • Biofuels and Food Inflation
  • Energy security in disguise
  • The "regulatory carrot"
  • The "regulatory stick"
  • Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs)
  • The "ethanol blend wall"
  • Food inflation and inequality
  • Shortages and physical hoarding as flatteners
  • Energy efficiency of biofuels
  • Meat prices: "corn with legs"
  • The super-cycle of farmland and agricultural logistical infrastructure
  • Genetically modified crops
  • A flatter agricultural world
  • Notes
  • Chapter 13 Flattener #10
  • Fiscal, Monetary, and Macroeconomic Flatteners
  • The "OPEC put"
  • At what level would OPEC stop defending the price?
  • The Btu that broke OPEC's back
  • Energy consumption in producing countries
  • Mortgaged future production
  • The paradox of plenty.
  • The Oil Tax Weapon
  • Consumer governments addicted to oil taxes
  • Consumer governments hostage of oil subsidies
  • Government defence budgets
  • Marshmallow behaviour
  • Let's change the tax rules
  • Monetary Experiments and the Credit Risk Time Bomb
  • Monetary experiments
  • Black gold
  • The race to the bottom
  • The generational debate
  • The monetary time bomb of credit risk
  • Financial Flows. Let's Blame the Speculators
  • Politicians and regulators pass the blame
  • Causality
  • Market manipulation
  • Investor blow-ups
  • Value at risk
  • Notes
  • Chapter 14 Implications and Opportunities in the Financial Markets
  • Concluding Remarks
  • Notes
  • Appendix For A Competitive European Energy Policy
  • Index
  • EULA.

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