Financial forecasting, analysis, and modelling : a framework for long-term forecasting /

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This book provides a complete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practical and accessible way, helping finance professionals include uncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thorough coverage of financial statement simulation models and clear, concise implementation ins...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Samonas, Michael
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Chichester, West Sussex, United Kingdom : John Wiley & Sons, 2015.
Temas:
Corporations > Finance > Mathematical models.
Corporations > Finance > Forecasting.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS > Industrial Management.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS > Management.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS > Management Science.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS > Organizational Behavior.
Corporations > Finance > Forecasting
Corporations > Finance > Mathematical models
Acceso en línea:Texto completo
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Tabla de Contenidos:
  • pt. ONE Developing Corporate Finance Models
  • ch. 1 Introduction
  • 1.1. What is Financial Modelling?
  • 1.2. Defining the Inputs and the Outputs of a Simple Financial Model
  • 1.3. The Financial Modelling Process of More Complex Models
  • 1.3.1. Step 1: Defining the Problem the Model Will Solve: The Fundamental Business Question
  • 1.3.2. Step 2: Specification of the Model
  • 1.3.3. Step 3: Designing and Building the Model
  • 1.3.4. Step 4: Checking the Model's Output
  • 1.4. Excel as a Tool of Modelling: Capabilities and Limitations
  • ch. 2 A Short Primer in the Accounting of Financial Statements
  • 2.1. The Accounting Equation
  • 2.2. The Balance Sheet
  • 2.3. The Income Statement
  • 2.3.1. Cash Accounting Versus Accrual Accounting
  • 2.4. The Cash Flow Statement
  • 2.4.1. Operating Activities
  • 2.4.2. Investing Activities
  • 2.4.3. Financing Activities
  • 2.4.4. Income Flows and Cash Flows
  • 2.4.5. Preparing the Statement of Cash Flows.
  • 2.5. The Articulation of Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow Statements
  • 2.6. Financial Statement Analysis: Ratio Analysis
  • 2.6.1. Profitability Ratios
  • 2.6.2. Liquidity Ratios
  • 2.6.3. Solvency Ratios
  • 2.6.4. Other Ratios
  • 2.6.5. The Limitations of Financial Ratios
  • ch. 3 Financial Statement Modelling
  • 3.1. Introduction
  • How Financial Models Work
  • 3.2. Collecting and Analyzing Historical Data
  • 3.3. Selecting the Key Forecast Drivers
  • 3.4. Modelling the Income Statement
  • 3.5. Modelling the Balance Sheet
  • 3.6. Modelling Interest and Circular References
  • 3.7. Modelling the Cash Flow Statement
  • ch. 4 Forecasting Performance
  • 4.1. Introduction: Designing a Dashboard-like Control Panel
  • 4.2. Basic Statistical Methods Used for Forecasting
  • 4.3. Forecasting Sales
  • 4.3.1. Bottom-up Versus Top-down Forecasting
  • 4.3.2. Forecasting Sales of Existing Products or Services
  • 4.4. Forecasting Costs.
  • 4.5. Forecasting CAPEX and Depreciation
  • 4.5.1. Forecasting CAPEX and Depreciation for Existing Companies
  • 4.6. Forecasting Working Capital and Funding Needs
  • 4.6.1. Forecasting Funding Needs
  • ch. 5 Business Valuation
  • 5.1. Valuation Approaches
  • 5.2. Steps for Applying the DCF Method
  • 5.3. Rewriting Financial Statements
  • Calculation of Free Cash Flows
  • 5.4. Calculating the Weighted Average Cost of Capital
  • 5.4.1. Calculating the Weighted Average Cost of Capital of SteelCo
  • 5.5. Estimating the Terminal Value
  • 5.6. DCF Summary
  • Enterprise Value Adjustments
  • pt. TWO Planning for Uncertainty
  • ch. 6 Using Sensitivity Analysis
  • 6.1. Introduction
  • 6.2. One-Dimensional and 2-Dimensional Sensitivity Analysis
  • 6.3. Choosing the Variables to Change
  • 6.4. Modelling Example
  • 6.4.1. Selecting the Variables to Change
  • 6.4.2. Assigning a Range of Values
  • 6.4.3. Constructing the 2-dimensional Sensitivity Analysis Table.
  • 6.4.4. Interpreting the Results
  • ch. 7 Using Scenarios
  • 7.1. Introduction
  • 7.2. Using Scenario Analysis with Excel's Scenario Manager
  • 7.2.1. Adding 2 More Scenarios
  • 7.3. Alternative Ways to Create Scenarios in Excel
  • 7.4. Applying Scenarios to SteelCo's Case
  • 7.4.1. Deciding on the Number of Scenarios and Input Variables under each Scenario
  • 7.4.2. Deciding on the Output Variables
  • 7.4.3. Assigning Values to the Input Variables under Each Scenario
  • 7.4.4. Building the Scenarios in Excel's Scenario Manager
  • 7.4.5. Interpreting the Results
  • ch. 8 Using Monte Carlo Simulation
  • 8.1. Introduction
  • 8.2. Building Uncertainty Directly Into the Modelling Process
  • 8.3. Probabilities, Cumulative Probabilities, and Frequency Distribution Charts
  • 8.4. Modelling Example
  • 8.4.1. Identifying the Key Risk Variables
  • 8.4.2. Choosing a Probability Distribution for Each Input Variable
  • 8.4.3. Performing the Simulation Runs.
  • 8.4.3.1. The Simple VBA CODE
  • 8.4.4. Creating a Histogram (Frequency Distribution Chart) in Excel
  • 8.4.5. Interpreting the Results
  • 8.4.6. Some Issues of Concern
  • Appendix
  • 1. Walking through the Excel Model Provided with the Book (SteelCo SA. 4yr Business Plan)
  • Introduction
  • Structure of the Model
  • 2. Other Excel Files Provided with the Book.

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