Tabla de Contenidos:
  • I. Introduction; II. Motivation and Literature Overview; A. Communicating Clearly; B. Literature on Monetary Policy Communication; III. Methodology and Data; A. Methodology ("Central Bank Watching for Dummies"); Tables; 1. Slope Coefficient in a Regression of Actual and Forecasted Policy Rate Changes; Figures; 1. Correlation of Actual and Forecasted Policy Rate Changes; 2. GARCH Estimate of the Policy Rule for the ECB; 3. Parameterization Overview; B. Data; 2. Euro Area: Actual Inflation, Inflation Targets, and Inflation Expectations.
  • 4. Inflation Factors and Their Serial Correlation5. Comparison with the KOF MPC Index; C. ECB Watching; 3. ECB Bulletins: Inflation Factors; 4. ECB: Central Bank Watching; IV. Results; A. Press Statements Only; B. Monthly Bulletins: Shock Descriptions; 5. Press Statements Only; C. Monthly Bulletins: Shock Descriptions and Forecast Risk Assessment; 6. ECB Bulletin, Shock Description, but No Forecast Risk Assessment; D. Monthly Bulletins: Adding Monetary Pillar Information; 7. ECB Bulletin, All Shocks; E. Summary Discussion: When Could the Public Get Confused?; 8. Monetary Pillar.
  • 9. Confusing Communication: Robustness ChecksF. Comparison with Other Studies; V. Conclusions; References.