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Willful ignorance : the mismeasure of uncertainty /
"An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how stati...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
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| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Hoboken, New Jersey :
Wiley,
2014.
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo Texto completo |
Tabla de Contenidos:
- Titlepage; Copyright; Epigraph; PREFACE; NOTE; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; 1 THE OPPOSITE OF CERTAINTY; Two Dead Ends; Analytical Engines; What is Probability?; Uncertainty; Willful Ignorance; Toward a New Science; Notes; 2 A QUIET REVOLUTION; Thinking the Unthinkable; Inventing Probability; Statistics; The Taming of Chance; The Ignorance Fallacy; The Dilemma of Science; Notes; 3 A MATTER OF CHANCE; Origins; The Famous Correspondence; What Did Not Happen Next; Against The Odds; Notes; 4 HARDLY TOUCHED UPON; The Mathematics of Chance; Empirical Frequencies; A Quantum of Certainty; Notes.
- 5 A MATHEMATICIAN OF BASELPublication at Last; The Art of Conjecturing; A Tragic Ending; Notes; 6 A DEFECT OF CHARACTER; Man Without a Country; A Fraction of Chances; Notes; 7 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY; Revolutionary Reverends; From Chances to Probability; Notes; 8 BABEL; The Great Unraveling; Probability as a Relative Frequency; Probability as a Logical Relationship; Probability as a Subjective Assessment; Probability as a Propensity; Notes; 9 PROBABILITY AND REALITY; The Razor's Edge; What Fisher Knew; What Reference Class?; A Postulate of Ignorance; Laplace's Error; Notes.
- 10 THE DECISION FACTORYBeyond Moral Certainty; Decisions, Decisions; Machine-Made Knowledge; Notes; 11 THE LOTTERY IN SCIENCE; Scientific Progress; Fooled by Causality; Statistics for Humans: Bias or Ambiguity?; Regression toward the Mean; Notes; 12 TRUST, BUT VERIFY; A New Problem; Trust, & & But Verify; The Future; Mindful Ignorance; Notes; APPENDIX: THE PASCAL-FERMAT CORRESPONDENCE OF 1654; Notes; BIBLIOGRAPHY; INDEX; END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT.