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Willful ignorance : the mismeasure of uncertainty /
"An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how stati...
| Clasificación: | Libro Electrónico |
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| Autor principal: | |
| Formato: | Electrónico eBook |
| Idioma: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Hoboken, New Jersey :
Wiley,
2014.
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| Temas: | |
| Acceso en línea: | Texto completo Texto completo |
| Sumario: | "An original account of willful ignorance and how this principle relates to modern probability and statistical methods Through a series of colorful stories about great thinkers and the problems they chose to solve, the author traces the historical evolution of probability and explains how statistical methods have helped to propel scientific research. However, the past success of statistics has depended on vast, deliberate simplifications amounting to willful ignorance, and this very success now threatens future advances in medicine, the social sciences, and other fields. Limitations of existing methods result in frequent reversals of scientific findings and recommendations, to the consternation of both scientists and the lay public. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty exposes the fallacy of regarding probability as the full measure of our uncertainty. The book explains how statistical methodology, though enormously productive and influential over the past century, is approaching a crisis. The deep and troubling divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research, and between research and practice, are reflections of this underlying problem. The author outlines a path toward the re-engineering of data analysis to help close these gaps and accelerate scientific discovery. Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty presents essential information and novel ideas that should be of interest to anyone concerned about the future of scientific research. The book is especially pertinent for professionals in statistics and related fields, including practicing and research clinicians, biomedical and social science researchers, business leaders, and policy-makers"-- "This provocative new book posits how the tacit principle of "willful ignorance" has led to a deep divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research that will increasingly constrain scientific progress unless bridged by a broadened conception of statistical methodology"-- |
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| Notas: | Machine generated contents note: 1 The Opposite of Certainty 2 A Quiet Revolution 3 A Matter of Chance 4 Hardly Touched Upon 5 A Mathematician of Basel 6 A Defect of Character 7 Classical Probability 8 Babel 9 Probability and Reality 10 The Decision Factory 11 The Lottery in Science 12 Trust, but Verify Acknowledgments Notes Bibliography Index. |
| Descripción Física: | 1 online resource |
| Bibliografía: | Includes bibliographical references and index. |
| ISBN: | 9781118593790 1118593790 9781118594414 111859441X 9781118839539 1118839536 0470890444 9780470890448 9781306908115 1306908116 |