Does money matter in predicting future events?

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Prediction markets are online trading platforms where contracts on future events are traded with payoffs being exclusively linked to event occurrence. Scientific research has shown that market prices of such contracts imply high forecasting accuracy through effective information aggregation of dispe...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Clasificación:Libro Electrónico
Autor principal: Diemer, Sebastian
Formato: Electrónico eBook
Idioma:Inglés
Publicado: Hamburg : Diplomica Verlag, 2014.
Temas:
Monetary policy > Mathematical models.
Investments > Germany.
Politique monétaire > Modèles mathématiques.
Investissements > Allemagne.
Investments
Monetary policy > Mathematical models
Germany
Acceso en línea:Texto completo
Tabla de Contenidos:
  • Does money matter in predicting future events?; Abstract; List of Content; 1. Introduction and Theoretical Fundamentals; 1.1 Introduction; 1.2 Definition of Prediction Markets; 1.3 Theoretical Framework; 2. Literature Overview; 2.1 Real-Money vs. Play-Money; 2.2 Other Factors With Influence on Forecasting Accuracy; 2.3 Closed Prediction Markets; 3. Data; 3.1 Data Provider; 3.2 Definition of Variables; 4. Results; 4.1 Overall Data; 4.2 Real-Money vs. Play-Money: Portfolio Comparison; 4.3 Real-Money vs. Play-Money: Direct Contract Comparison; 4.4 Real-Money/Play-Money: Influencing Factors.
  • 4.5. ConclusionReferences; Appendix.

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